2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+49000)
Let me go in a bit of a different direction here.
Kansas City has hit the under in 70% of their games this season — the third-highest rate in the NFL. Their games have gone under by an average of 6.9 points — by far the biggest differential in the league.
So if this game surprises us as a low-scoring affair, it could take just one or two big plays for someone to stand out as the only real MVP candidate.
And why does that have me looking at Marquez Valdes-Scantling? Because that scenario favors a home-run hitter, and nobody beats MVS when it comes to getting targeted deep.
Valdes-Scantling has a 17.7 yard average depth of target (aDOT) on the year, which is tops in the Chiefs offense. Justin Watson is the only other Chief who tops even 10.0 yards.
He's also been a lot more efficient on those deep balls than Watson. Patrick Mahomes has a 74.1 passer rating when targeting MVS 20-plus yards downfield, compared to just a 42.2 rating when targeting Watson (per Pro Football Focus).
In a low-scoring game, just one instance of Valdes-Scantling taking the top off the defense for a decisive 50-plus yard score would certainly put him in the MVP conversation, and if he ran good and had a pair of 'em? Then you'd probably start making some early calculations on just how much a 490-to-1 payout would earn you.