DeAndre Hopkins is Going to Dominate the Cleveland Browns in Week 15
The Kansas City Chiefs offense has looked very different recently. While they have been just the 11th most pass-heavy team in the NFL this season, they lead the league in pass rate over expectation over the last four weeks. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game in that stretch, which is up 10.7% from earlier in the season.
Even still, DeAndre Hopkins has only eclipsed 36 yards once in those last four weeks. But I'm here to tell you that it's time for another Hopkins breakout game, even against a relatively stout Cleveland Browns defense.
There's a reason that his over/under for receiving on FanDuel Sportsbook is well above that mark, at 44.5, and his line for over 3.5 receptions is favored at -128. But neither of those marks are nearly high enough, and I'll easily take the over on both.
Chiefs vs. Browns Prediction: DeAndre Hopkins is Going to Feast
First. a little more of a look at the guy we need to rely on getting the ball to Hopkins.
While Mahomes is throwing the ball more lately, that's not always been a positive. He's been below his season average of 6.9 yards per pass attempt in three of his last four games. He's been pressured an average of 16 times per game in that stretch, per PFF. He's been sacked 3.8 times per game.
And now he's up against one of the NFL's best pass rushers in Myles Garrett, and a Browns defense that ranks No. 3 in the NFL in PFF's pass-rush grade. But why is that good news for Hopkins?
Because it's not going to let Mahomes force the ball downfield — something that has generally been bad for the Chiefs this year. PFF has Mahomes ranked just 19th in grade on passes 20-plus yards down the field. That's only one spot ahead of Aidan O'Connell, and one behind Andy Dalton. He's completed an absolutely brutal 32.4% of those throws.
And for his part, DeAndre Hopkins ranks only No. 40 among wideouts in yards per route run on deep balls. Just last week, Mahomes went 0-ofor-4 throwing to Hopkins on anything more than even 10 yards down the field.
But he was a perfect 4-for-4 for 32 yards and a touchdown on short passes (0-10 yards) to Hopkins. That was the most short targets Hopkins had seen in a game since Week 9, which just so happened to be when he went off for 86 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 receptions.
The best thing for Mahomes is to work the ball in the short and intermediate areas, and the most effective way to use Hopkins has been in those same spots. Don't think that Andy Reid is going to have missed this connection — especially when he's about to face a defense that gets after the quarterback like Cleveland does.
Does this mean I'm excited about the prospects of the Chiefs as a whole on Sunday? Not necessarily, and that 4.5-point spread on the road worries me. But it's a lot easier to feel good about Hopkins on an individual level here, and simply hitting 4 receptions and 45 yards to cash both over/under lines should not be especially difficult.
More Kansas City Chiefs news and analysis:
feed
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.