The Chiefs Will Be Dominated by the Bills in One Area (and Win Anyway)

When there's as much at stake in a game as we have on Sunday between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, you'll often see predictions go in one of two directions: either fans are wildly optimistic about their team and dismiss the other one, or fans are way too afraid of a loss and start downplaying their own squad. But in the reality of an NFL matchup, there's always more nuance.

And some of understanding that nuance is appreciating what parts of the game will actually impact the outcome and which won't.

One thing Chiefs fans are worried about (and BIlls fans seem confident about) is that Josh Allen will run all over the KC defense. His rushing total on FanDuel Sportsbook is even set at over/under 47.5 yards. And you can expect him to go over that total, probably by a pretty big margin. He's absolutely going to have a chance to put up some dominant numbers with his legs. And it won't matter at all.

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction: Josh Allen Will Run All Over Kansas City (in a Bills Loss)

Josh Allen putting up one of his highest rushing total of the season almost feels like a foregone conclusion in this matchup. It's the perfect spot for him to rack up huge numbers on the ground — this is no secret, and if anything people might be underrating how well he'll run in this game (see that low over/under for rushing yards). But anyone making the jump to connect that to a Chiefs loss is missing the bigger picture.

First let's look at why Allen's going to have that huge rushing total, and then a little more at why it won't matter.

Why Josh Allen is Rushing for 50-Plus Yards

It's not as simple as "just look at how many yards he's rushed for against the Chiefs before," but that's certainly a fine starting point. He racked up 55 yards on 12 rushes in their last meeting in Week 11. In the 2023 playoffs he had 72 yards on 12 carries. He hasn't recorded fewer than 10 rush attempts in a game against the Chiefs since 2020. For a guy averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the season (right in line with his career average of 5.5), double-digit rushes make him pretty likely to top 50 yards. But it goes way deeper than that.

Getting torched on the ground by mobile QBs would be nothing new for the Chiefs this year. The season opened with Lamar Jackson's 122-yard game in Week 1 — a total that remained the second-highest mark for a QB leaguewide this season. Allen's 55 yards against KC were his third-highest mark of the season. Russell Wilson's 55 in Week 17 were more than double what he recorded in any other game. Bo Nix' 47 in Week 18 were his third highest of the season.

Consider too, that Allen's rushing is often in response to facing pressure in the pocket. Per PFF, Allen scrambled 30 times when facing pressure this season, which ranked No. 4 among all quarterbacks. His ranking in scrambles falls to No. 8 when he has a clean pocket. The Chiefs' pass rush ranks No. in PFF grade and No. 5 in Pro-Football-Reference's pressure rate. Allen's going to be scrambling a ton.

And then we add in the designed runs (especially with how they tend to increase for Allen in the playoffs), there's little doubt that he's going to be running all game, and picking up plenty of yardage. But "QB rushing yards" aren't exactly one of those stats you look at to determine who is going to win a game.

Why the Chiefs are Winning Anyway

Remember what I said about Allen's rushing being so valuable when he faces pressure? More of his rush attempts were scrambles under pressure than either scrambles from a clean pocket or designed runs in the regular season. And as we established, he's going to be facing plenty of pressure.

But even the most mobile QB isn't going to have rushing lanes every time they face pressure. And when Allen has thrown the ball under duress he's been much less impressive.

His overall PFF grade (74.4) when pressured ranked No. 9 among all QBs this season, thanks to his No. 2-ranked rushing grade (92.5). But his passing grade (62.7) ranked just No. 15. He only threw 3 picks when pressured this year, but that appeared to be in part some faovrable luck, because PFF graded him with 10 "turnover worthy plays" on those snaps.

The Bills' success also doesn't exactly hinge on Allen's legs. His four games with over 50 yards on the ground this season saw the Bills go 2-2. They're a combined 13-1 in the rest of Allen's games. Is some of that the old "teams throw more when they're trailing" correlation? Maybe, but consider that his top two games for PFF rushing grade (so a measure of how effective he was rather than just the stats he racked up) were both losses.

The biggest "win" you're going to get from Allen picking up a ton of rushing yards is taking the over on his prop bet. But when it comes down to it, that simply isn't going to affect the Bills' chances of winning. The same pressure from the Chiefs' pass rush that will make him scramble a ton is the same pressure that will sink him as a passer and lead to another Super Bowl appearance for the Chiefs.

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