It’s been the season from hell for the 6-8 Kansas City Chiefs, who were officially eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, and are now down superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes for the foreseeable future with a torn ACL.
The Chiefs are up againt a 2-12 Tennessee Titans team 16 that is truly abysmal in every sense of the word, but will no doubt muster up all the energy possible to go into the offseason with momentum for the future. Kansas City sustained a number of injuries last week and was already down key players on the offensive line, wide receiver, and cornerback. I’ll be interested to see who head coach Andy Reid decides to play a lot or a little, knowing that the season is basically over.
Chiefs Offense vs Titans Defense
Seven-year veteran Gardner Minshew is in line to start this week at quarterback. It’s hard to know what to expect from Minshew after completing just 3-5 passes for 22 yards and an interception last week. Minshew has started 46 games in his career and has a 63.3% completion percentage and a 68:35 TD: INT ratio. During his time in this year’s preseason games, I thought Minshew left a lot to be desired, despite the hope I had for him being a serviceable backup.
The Titans rank bottom five in both points (28.1) and yards (356.6) allowed per game, despite having a defensive line that’s been capable of getting after the quarterback. Star defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons leads the d-line unit with nine sacks and 14 tackles for loss, while quality veteran pieces like Jihad Ward, DreMont Jones, and Arden Key have combined for 13 sacks and 39 quarterback hits. Offensive line remains a sieve for the Chiefs as just two starters remain in center Creed Humphrey and left guard Kingsley Suamataia. With a less mobile Minshew at the helm and a hungry Titans front, things could get messy quickly on offense.
The running game remains completely stagnant for the Chiefs, as they rank bottom of the league in explosive run rate, with just 2% of runs going for 10-plus yards, according to Fantasy Life's Ian Hartitz. Both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco average less than four yards per carry and provide no burst or big play ability whatsoever. Against a Titans defense that ranks 20th in rushing, Reid would do well to provide a healthy workload for rookie Brashard Smith both on the ground and in the passing game. With the Chiefs beginning to look toward 2026, both Hunt and Pacheco do not project to be on the team, so why not let Smith get some work in and let him learn from his tape during the offseason?
Tennessee might have the worst back seven in the NFL, with linebacker Cedric Gray leading the team with 144 tackles. Safety Amani Hooker is the best defensive back on the Titans and a solid starting player, but has yet to force a turnover this season. I think for the Chiefs to have any success on offense at all, they will need for Minshew to lace the ball inside the hashmarks and attack Tennessee down the field. It’s a big ask for a backup quarterback who’s only seen one drive of action this year. But miracles might exist, even this year.
Another player who should get some real reps in this game is rookie receiver Jalen Royals. For whatever reason, the fourth-round pick has been active for just four games and not targeted once on offense. I thought he was a really nice prospect coming out of Utah State University and was a little Rashee Rice-like, in terms of body frame and play style. Much like Smith, Royals could become a large contributor to next year’s offense, but the Chiefs will never know if these guys can actually produce if they don’t first give them the opportunity to do.
Titans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Say what you want about this Chiefs defense, but my eyes (most of the time) and the stats tell me that they're a darn solid unit. Much discussion this week amongst Chiefs fans has been to let a select number of coaches go, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should be at the bottom of that list. Kansas City ranks fifth in points allowed per game (19.1), and despite the inability to create pressure with four, along with the loss of superstar Trent McDuffie on the back end, KC held the Chargers to just 16 points last week and 20 points to the Texans a week before.
As far as the Titans go on offense, rookie first-overall pick Cam Ward has not exactly set the world on fire. In 14 games, Ward has thrown for just 11 touchdowns and seven picks on a putrid 59% completion percentage and has been sacked a whopping 49 times. Ward is, however, a very good athlete and can work well out of structure. I don’t expect the Chiefs to muster up much pressure, mainly because I don’t believe this is a game Chris Jones will play in. Jones is already banged up and 31 years old in a lost season. If I’m the Chiefs, I shut Jones down for the remaining three games.
Tennessee's most reliable option has been running back Tony Pollard, who has over 840 rushing yards and five scores on the ground. Pollard leads this team in first downs by far with 47 overall, and has a long rush of 65. If the Chiefs want to halt the Titans, it starts with containing Pollard. Another young Chiefs rookie who it would be nice to see on the field down the stretch is linebacker Jeffrey Bassa, who has seen very limited action, despite his next-level athleticism and on-field awareness.
In terms of the passing game, the Titans don’t threaten much. Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has come on nicely, leading the team in catches (45) and yards (459), but has yet to reach the painted area. Receivers Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike have each eclipsed over 300 yards receiving and have a combined six TDs. It’s yet to be announced whether McDuffie will play in this game due to a hyperextended knee, but if not, it forces younger guys who project to have bigger roles next season to step up. At the top of this list are rookie CB Nohl Williams, who has played very well in limited time, minus a couple of penalties that could have gone either way, and S Jaden Hicks, who is flirting with taking a starting role next season.
The Verdict
In essence, this Titans offense is young, undermanned, and not well-coached. I expect the defense to hold Tennessee to no more than 17 points. However, from what we’ve seen from the Chiefs' offense with Mahomes, 17 points have been enough to beat them. Now with Minshew in charge, I think a lot of people will finally realize how much of this outdated and injured offense Mahomes had been carrying on his back.
Week 16 Score Prediction: Chiefs 14, Titans 16
Chiefs' must-haves for a Week 16 win:
- Make the game easy for Minshew with quick hitters down the field
- Set up the screen game with RB Brashard Smith and feed WR Jalen Royals
- Create pressure with four against a poor Titans o-line
- See what you got in your young defensive investments