The long wait is over, Chiefs fans. After weeks of agony as the 2025 season came to an end, hope and excitement have only been building for Kansas City to return stronger for the 2026 campaign.
Patrick Mahomes, exactly nine months after the day he tore his ACL and LCL in his left knee, is set to start with no restrictions. And he should, aside from left tackle Josh Simmons' unavailability, have his full arsenal of playmakers at his disposal. Including Brett Veach's biggest offseason addition, in reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III.
On the defensive side of the ball for KC, Steve Spagnuolo has for years now vaulted this defense into top-10 discussions, regardless of personnel on the field. This year, the roster looks much different, with a rehaul of the defensive tackle unit and the secondary after losing a trio of 2022 draftees: Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, and Bryan Cook.
The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 1 Monday night divisional clash with control of the AFC West on the line.
The Chiefs will host Sean Payton and Bo Nix's Denver Broncos on Monday night, hoping to secure not only their first win of the season but also the first win against the Broncos in two years, as they were swept by their AFC West rival last year.
Chiefs Offense vs. Broncos Defense
To put it simply, for the past two years now, the Broncos defense hasn't just been good. They've been elite under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. Last year, per game, they ranked third in points allowed (18.3) and second in yards allowed (278.2), while also leading the league in sacks with a whopping 68.
They did lose some key pieces up front in John Franklin Myers at d-tackle and Dre Greenlaw at linebacker. Denver will also be without edge rusher Jonathon Cooper, who has averaged nine sacks over the past three years.
Obviously, the biggest story of this game is how well the Chiefs' tackles, Kahlil Benson and Jaylon Moore, fare versus a disastrous Broncos sack attack. Running the ball early and often for Kansas City will be crucial. The Chiefs possess a strong center and guard trio on the inside, and now, with Walker receiving the majority of the handoffs, along with impressive fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson, the explosive runs should present themselves to the Chiefs.
My primary concern in this game, however, is not the offensive tackles. It's whether the Chiefs' wide receivers can get open consistently versus one of, if not the best, secondaries in all of football. Pat Surtain is completely lockdown, and whether he shadows the likes of Rashee Rice or Xavier Worthy for the majority of the game or moves around, I don't trust the Chiefs' receivers to beat Surtain.
Jahdae Barron is another talented young corner, as is Kris Abrams-Draine. Talanoa Hufanga and Brandon Jones are an excellent, hard-hitting, and smart safety duo who rarely get beat for big plays. This will likely limit Tyquan Thornton's ability down the field. Denver's Riley Moss is their third starting corner on the outside, which is where the Chiefs may be able to find some life.
Moss was a penalty machine last year and had lapses in coverage as well. Exposing Moss should be a key factor in Andy Reid's game plan. As should be taking advantage of Denver's older/slower linebacker duo of Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad. I know Travis Kelce is near age 37, but his ability to find the open parts of the field is still among the best in the world. He needs to eat in the second level of Denver's defense.
Last year, Kansas City, in their one real matchup with Denver, did everything they could to lose the game by double digits, but it was just a one-possession game. In the end, I do think the Chiefs have enough talent to overcome this defense and score in the low to mid twenties. Whether or not Reid's scheme has truly improved over the offseason and he incorporates an enhanced run game is a major question mark.
Broncos Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
We all know the youth that this Chiefs defense was infused with this summer. It can be a scary thing, going up against a Sean Payton offense, where the veteran coach is not afraid to push the ball downfield and take risks. Bo Nix, while not an elite QB, is better than a lot of Chiefs fans want to admit.
And this season provides him with the best weapons he's ever had going into year three. Veteran Courtland Sutton remains a very good player, and the trio of running backs in JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey, and Jonah Coleman all have versatile skill sets, tackle-breaking ability, and speed.
Pat Bryant has gotten lots of hype out of Denver, with many expecting a big year-two breakout. Evan Engram has turned himself into a reliable target for Nix, and Adam Trautman is one of the better blocking tight ends in the game.
Lastly, we cannot forget about former Miami Dolphins speedster Jaylen Waddle, who should vault this offense into being more explosive both vertically and horizontally. The Chiefs will have their hands full with the weapons as well as a premier offensive line unit.
Mansoor Delane and Nohl Williams need to be physical off the line of scrimmage with Sutton and Waddle, and deter them from building separation through their routes. Kansas City will also be without starting safety Chamarri Conner in this matchup, forcing Jaden Hicks and Chris Roland Wallace to see extended time on the back end next to veteran leader Alohi Gilman.
The pass rush needs to make an impact in this game. Chris Jones is still elite, and George Karlaftis always shows up and makes plays. But who is going to be those third, fourth, and fifth guys who make the stars' lives easier? Rookies R Mason Thomas and Peter Woods will be heavily relied upon to crash the pocket on Nix, as will nose tackle Khyiris Tonga to stuff the run game.
The Verdict
There are two outcomes to this game. Either the Chiefs win or lose. But there are a million ways it might go, and nothing would shock me, because we've seen it all before from this team. I do believe the Broncos have a better roster from players 2-53. And somewhat comfortably, especially with the youth of KC's unproven defense and tackle play on offense. But the quarterback position is no question. Patrick Mahomes is back, with a vengeance like no other. I think his talent and his will to win will take this game over late, in what I expect to be a dogfight throughout.
Week 1 Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 20
Chiefs Keys to Success
- Establish the run with Kenneth Walker and Emmett Johnson early and often
- Chip and slide protection to help Kahlil Benson versus Nik Bonitto
- Crash the pocket on Bo Nix and force him into quick decisions
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