The Kansas City Chiefs made a major move on Thursday by applying the franchise tag to Pro Bowl right guard Trey Smith. It was an interesting decision, though the team is reportedly hoping to agree to a long-term extension.
Now that Smith has the tag, the Chiefs have three choices with what to do with him next, but one option should be an obvious call.
Option 1: Give Trey Smith His Money!
I would argue the Chiefs have the best interior offensive line in the NFL, with Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Smith all being premier players at their respective positions. If Smith hits the open market, he will command a big contract, and rightfully so after being one of the most dominant run blockers in the NFL over the last 4 years. The question will be, can the Chiefs afford to give him the money he deserves?
Smith will command just north of 20 million a year in an extension, and the Chiefs have expressed interest in keeping him in Kansas City for the future. Cap space is valuable in the NFL, and with the salary cap rising to just under 280 million, the Chiefs may be willing to spend a significant chunk on Trey Smith. I would expect an extension to look something like 4 years for $92 million, a little more than what I previously projected, but with the franchise tag on the table, it will take a lot to keep Smith in Kansas City.
Option 2: Tag and Trade
Chiefs fans should be familiar with the idea of a tag and trade with the Chiefs having done it twice in recent history with Dee Ford and L’Jarius Sneed. Kansas City will likely make a push for an extension and will do their best to bring back Smith. But if the two sides can’t reach an agreement about the money, a trade seems inevitable.
Smith is one of the best guards in the NFL and would hold a lot of trade value if he was still under his rookie deal or a different contract. But other teams will leverage the fact that he is on the franchise tag against the Chiefs, and will not go into a bidding war for a guy they may feel they need to move on from. This happened with Sneed last year, as Kansas City was looking for a 2nd but teams would not bid up and the team settled for a deal with the Titans to free up the cap space.
Offensive line holds more value on the trade market than cornerbacks, and we have seen several offensive guards get paid big money. There are many teams looking to protect young quarterbacks and add an anchor piece to their offensive lines and Smith could be that option. He may hold a slightly higher value in the trade market than Sneed does, but I would expect a relatively similar trade package if Smith is moved this offseason.
Option 3: Let Smith Play Under the Tag
This is the least likely option, and I would say has about a 5% chance of happening, but it is possible the Chiefs keep Smith under the franchise tag for 2025. The tag is expensive and will cost about 24 million or more in cap space this season, and would likely make Smith the highest paid guard in football. I don’t think the Chiefs have much interest in doing this, as they will need the cap space this year, and 24 million is a lot for them to swallow this season.
The Most Likely Outcome
I would expect the Chiefs to max out their offer around five years and $115 million, with a significant number of guaranteed money. Extending Smith is a priority and the Chiefs will pull out all the stops to bring him back to protect Patrick Mahomes. But there is a limit to what the team will offer, and we know Brett Veach is willing to move on if he feels they can’t reach an agreement on a deal that benefits both sides.
If Kansas City can’t reach an agreement with Trey Smith, a trade becomes almost a certainty. I would expect teams like the Houston Texans, Chicago Bears or Arizona Cardinals to be interested in Smith and the trade value would likely be a 3rd round pick. The Chiefs likely used the franchise tag to get some more time to hammer out an extension. My prediction is that Trey Smith will return to Kansas City on a four-year, $94 million deal with $52 million guaranteed.