The Super Bowl was all the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens had in mind coming into this season. In a shocking turn of events, however, one of them will enter Week 5 with three losses and an outside shot at winning their divisions and being a top seed in the AFC. Everything will be determined at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The Ravens have had a roller-coaster of a season. They blew a 15-point fourth-quarter lead versus the Bills in week one to lose 41-40, walloped Cleveland 41-17 in their home opener in week 2, and then got gashed in the run game by the Lions in Week 3, giving up 224 rushing yards and 38 points. The defense in Baltimore is a big issue right now, and that’s not normally what would be said about a Ravens defense. They rank in the bottom three in PPG, total yards, sacks, and have allowed offenses to convert on 45 percent of all third downs.
Derrick Henry is, no doubt, a Hall of Fame running back and has played very well this season, scoring three touchdowns and has nearly 300 yards from scrimmage. But Henry has lost a fumble in every game so far this season. Henry’s turnover last week was what flipped the game in Detroit’s favor. Lamar Jackson has been his usual MVP self, posting an astonishing 141.8 QB rating, 72 percent completion percentage, and 10 touchdowns with zero turnovers.
For the Chiefs, last week's win against the Giants was a huge sigh of relief, as a 0-3 start more than likely would have tanked the season. Now with a win under their belt and Xavier Worthy finally returning from injury, this Chiefs team might be ready to start rounding into form in the nick of time.
The defense had yet another fantastic outing, giving up just nine points, forcing two interceptions on Russell Wilson, and surrendering one third-down conversion on 10 attempts. George Karlaftis had one of his best career games, totaling 10 tackles, one sack, and a pass breakup. After week one’s debacle against the Chargers, Steve Spagnuolo has incorporated more of his young players onto the field, which has given the defense an energy boost and a speed advantage that was lacking.
Patrick Mahomes continues to make plays that defy logic, the offensive line (minus Jawaan Taylor's sickening penalties) has mightily improved their chemistry, and Tyquan Thornton seems to be the real deal as a legitimate deep threat weapon. The run game is this team's biggest issue. Isiah Pacheco is healthy from his injury last year, but he looks like he lost a step or two in terms of burst, while his vision between the tackles was already bad to begin with. Kareem Hunt literally runs in wet cement, and Andy Reid still refuses to give rookie Brashard Smith any kind of workload.
Ravens Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
Lamar Jackson is 1-4 in his career against the Patrick Mahomes-era Chiefs. Jackson posts just a 56 percent completion percentage and has eight total touchdowns. He’s been on a tear this season, though, leading this offense to a first-place 37 PPG. Jackson also gets a welcome weapon back on the field in the form of TE Isaiah Likely, who has yet to step on the field this season. Likely will see a significant snap count reduction in his first game back, but he is always a threat in the red zone and over the middle of the field.
This offense relies on the run game being successful and setting up play action for Lamar to find an open spot on the field for his receivers. Having a wrecking ball like Derrick Henry is a pretty good formula for that. Henry faced off against the Chiefs just once in his time with the Ravens and was bottled up for just 3.5 YPC and one touchdown. The Chiefs are middle of the pack in rush defense, but did a great job in Week 2, holding Saquon Barkley to 88 yards on 22 carries with a long of 13. It will be a major point of emphasis for KC’s front seven to contain Henry.
Tight end Mark Andrews came alive last week, catching every one of his six targets for 94 yards and two scores. While Andrews may not be his peak self, he is still one of Jackson’s favorite targets and is trusted within this Ravens team to make big plays.
I would imagine we see a lot of Chamarri Conner and Drue Tranquill matched up with Andrews throughout the game, as Conner is a bigger-bodied DB and does a lot of his work in the slot, while Tranquill is about as ferocious as they come at LB, with some very solid coverage and ball skills.
Before last week, Zay Flowers was in the top five in both catches and receiving yards. The fourth-year player out of Boston College is one of the most elusive route runners in the league, with legit speed. At 5’9, Flowers' game matches up perfectly with what Trent McDuffie is built to stop. Being an undersized corner himself, this is a matchup that McDuffie dreams of, as he actually has the size advantage for once. I feel confident that Flowers will have a quiet day and that McDuffie can win that matchup.
Receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Rashod Bateman both offer intriguing skillsets, but are not necessarily man-beaters in coverage. With Jaylen Watson playing the best football of his life and rookie Nohl Williams emerging, this might be another game where the Chiefs DBs can force a turnover or two.
Chiefs Offense vs. Ravens Defense
It’s been a rough go for the Chiefs on offense this year. They’ve had their bright spots in the second halves of the Chargers and Giants games, but other than that, it’s been a real slog. All eyes will be on Xavier Worthy when the Chiefs' offense takes the field for the first time. We’ll see how much protection he has on that shoulder that got injured in week one. Whether it's just a little bit of extra padding or a full-blown brace, Worthy taking that first hit and how he gets up will be telling.
Baltimore comes into this game as a bottom-three defense statistically, and is projected to be without multiple high-end contributors in this game. DT Nnamdi Madubuike is an elite player at his position and has already been ruled out. DE Kyle Van Noy led the Ravens with 12.5 sacks last season. He is not going to play in this game. Another starting d-lineman, Broderick Washington, will not play, and DL Travis Jones is a long shot as well. The Ravens enter this game with basically a backup defensive line.
If the Chiefs and Isiah Pacheco in particular fail to put up consistent chunk yardage running the football, it’s going to be a huge concern for not just this game but for the season.
Despite the Ravens' ranking so low in passing defense, they have great personnel and talent that should not be overlooked. Kyle Hamilton is arguably the best safety in the league, and Malaki Starks is a first-round rookie safety who pairs his speed nicely with Hamilton’s downhill approach. Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins are excellent in coverage with a nose for the football, while veteran Chidobe Awuzie rounds out the room.
Tyquan Thornton has been nothing short of a revelation and has been the sole reason why Patrick Mahomes is top of the league in explosive throws (passes over 20 yards) and is inching back to a more palatable seven yards per attempt. The speed of Worthy, Thornton, and Hollywood Brown should cause the Ravens' secondary a lot of problems, and hopefully lead to even more long-ball touchdowns.
To bring the name Travis Kelce up in Chiefs Kingdom right now does not bring out the warm and fuzzies it normally did. Kelce is 36 years old and has declined over the last couple of years as a top-tier athlete. That’s normal, he’s human.
And while I think most of his sideline blowups of late correspond with him understanding that he’s not who he used to be, Kelce is still a valuable piece in this offensive scheme and a needed voice and leader within the locker room. To me, Kelce has looked better than he did last year when the ball is in his hands. I think he’s going to remind everyone this week why he is the greatest tight end of all time.
How Can the Ravens Beat the Chiefs?
- Open up holes on the o-line for Derrick Henry to build a head of steam
- Play a two-high safety look the entirety of the game to mitigate the Chiefs' deep ball
- Play a full 60-minute football game
How Can the Chiefs Beat the Ravens?
- Have to gain chunk yardage running the football on a banged-up Ravens d-line
- Fly to the ball on defense and don’t miss tackles
- Harrison Butker needs to make all of his kicks