It’s Week 7 and the Kansas City Chiefs' second divisional matchup of the season, marking the first of two games against the 2-4 Las Vegas Raiders. In an offseason that saw the Raiders acquire a proven winner at head coach in Pete Carroll and a quarterback in 35-year-old Geno Smith, who revitalized his career as a three-year starter in Seattle, the Raiders' season has been underwhelming to say the least.
A complete shellacking of the Lions last week has Chiefs fans, players, and coaches buzzing with excitement, and not just because of the big win. Star receiver Rashee Rice returns this week after over a full calendar year of not missing time due to a major leg injury that he has since recovered from, and a six-game suspension that we won’t get into details over.
Despite both AFC West teams coming off a victory, this is a must-win game for the Raiders to stay in the fight for their playoff hopes, and a must-win game for the Chiefs, considering their 0-1 division record already. Here’s what to expect in this AFC West showdown.
Chiefs Defense vs. Raiders Offense
Geno Smith had one year left on his contract after being traded to Las Vegas. The Raiders then decided to extend him for two more seasons at $35 million per year, a contract that first-time general manager John Spytek is no doubt kicking himself over. Smith has thrown the ball to the opposing team more often than he’s thrown the ball to his own teammates in the end zone, with just seven passing touchdowns to 10 interceptions.
The Raiders will most likely be without their top two pass-catchers as star tight end Brock Bowers will not play due to injury, and wideout Jakobi Meyers is banged up and has been the source of much trade discussion with the deadline approaching. Third-year receiver Tre Tucker has stepped up nicely, posting over 350 yards and four TDs this season. At 5’8", Tucker is very undersized but compensates for that with 4.3-second 40-yard dash speed. Chiefs safeties Bryan Cook, Chamarri Conner, and Jaden Hicks need to make sure Tucker doesn’t get behind them in this game.
Las Vegas’ receiving threats get really thin after Tucker, and shouldn't pose much of an issue for a Chiefs cornerback room that is playing out of its mind right now. Trent McDuffie has been excellent all season, Jaylen Watson is earning himself a nice paycheck next offseason, and rookie Nohl Williams looks like yet another late-round draft pick hit at corner for GM Brett Veach.
From a linebacker perspective, the main focus, aside from the occasional Michael Mayer catch at TE for the Raiders, will be containing rookie running back Ashton Jeanty. Since Week 4, Jeanty has averaged just under five yards per carry and has broken through the end zone four times. Jeanty is about as freaky an athlete as they come at the position, with terrific vision, breaks tackles with ease, and has the speed to take it the distance. Pursuing the ball and gang-tackling will be the Chiefs' superpower on defense this week, as Jeanty rarely goes down on first contact.
Part of why Smith has thrown so many picks is the lack of time in the pocket his offensive line has afforded him. Left tackle Kolten Miller is a very good player, but was placed on injured reserve a couple of weeks back (h/t @RapSheet) and will be out for this game and the foreseeable future. With Miller out, Stone Forsythe takes his place with DJ Glaze playing right tackle.
All due respect, but those two are not particularly good quarterback protectors, and while the Raiders' interior is a bit more respectable, Chris Jones beats up on respectable. George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu, and Mike Danna have yet to put a game together from a pass-rushing standpoint that really enthuses me. Against two inexperienced, slow-footed tackles, this would be the game to rack up some sacks.
Chiefs Offense vs. Raiders Defense
The current betting favorite to win his third league-MVP (+200 on FanDuel Sportsbook), Patrick Mahomes, has been on an absolute heater both passing the ball and on the ground, already tying his career best four rushing TDs in a single season. He faces a Raider defense that is somewhat well-equipped up front, but is absolutely dreadful at linebacker and in the secondary.
Edge rusher Maxx Crosby has long had his run-ins with Mahomes over the years, and while there is a mutual respect between the two, in between the whistles, Crosby will do everything in his power to put the Chiefs' gunslinger in the dirt. At four sacks already this season, Crosby does most of his pass-rushing from the left side of the defensive line, meaning, similar to last week, with Lions disruptor Aidan Hutchinson, Jawaan Taylor will draw the premium pass-rusher throughout the game.
Taylor has accrued just one penalty since Week 3 and is playing some of the best football of his life. The Chiefs' interior three of Suamataia, Humphrey, and Smith shouldn’t face too tough a task from the Raiders' big men this week, aside from second-year seventh-round pick Jonah Laulu, who has four sacks this season and looks to be a rising piece for LV. While the rumors and uncertainty continue to swarm around Josh Simmons' absence, Jaylon Moore stepped in at left tackle and played tremendously, giving up just three pressures on 40 pass-blocking sets. We’ll see if he can stack another game versus first-round talent Tyree Wilson.
On the backend, the Raiders rank 19th in passing yards allowed, which isn’t good by any means, and I would argue that they haven’t been tested all that much. Teams get up early and tend to run the ball till the clock hits zero. Kyu Blu Kelly and Eric Stokes are the Raiders' top corners and have both played over 90% of the snaps. No other Vegas corner has eclipsed over 30% of snaps, meaning the Raiders generally like to play three linebackers in a 4-3 scheme, which has benefitted them in the run game, giving up only 95.3 rushing yards per game (10th).
The Raiders love to cover slot receivers with their most athletic linebacker, Devin White. With Rashee Rice (who runs the majority of his routes from the slot) matched up opposite White, he seriously might have 150 yards in this game. Rice has tormented linebackers historically, as has Travis Kelce, who will see most of his reps versus veteran LB Germaine Pratt.
If the Raiders decide to shy away from a 4-3 scheme, it would mean a pivot toward a one-safety look over the top, contrary to what most defenses run these days, in a two-safety coverage. It would also be one less guy in the box for RBs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt to have to worry about. Jeremy Chinn is the Raiders' best safety and the team's second-leading tackler.
While the Raiders haven’t been picked on much downfield this season, Xavier Worthy, Tyquan Thornton, and Hollywood Brown possess speed that no Las Vegas DB can handle. I think Mahomes has a field day against this Raider back seven, assuming Crosby doesn’t wreak havoc all game.
How can the Chiefs beat the Raiders?
- Mahomes attacks the middle of the field with Rice and Kelce
- Chiefs' front-seven bottling up Jeanty
- Help out Jawaan Taylor with chips and stunts versus Maxx Crosby
- Harrison Butker, for the love of God, have a clean game