Chiefs Playoff Odds and Predictions for Each Possible Divisional Round Opponent

The Chiefs earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC and get to relax this weekend while the rest of the playoff field battle it out during the Wild Card round, though they're still fully focused on winning the all-elusive three-peat.

Kansas City will host a game in the Divisional Round at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium with the possibility of facing four teams. Since the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds respectively, they cannot face the Chiefs.

That leaves the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Denver Broncos as options. The Chiefs will square off with the lowest remaining seed (highest number), as the NFL doesn't have a set bracket and reseeds each round. They've already beaten all four of those teams this year, but some matchups were closer than others.

Some fans prefer to play someone like the Steelers over a division rival, but who is the actual most likely opponent?

Who is the Chiefs' Most Likely Next Opponent

Using FanDuel Sportsbook's betting odds for the Wild Card round, we can get an idea of who sportsbooks believe the Chiefs will square off with. The Chargers are three-point favorites over the Texans, the Steelers are 9.5-point underdogs in Baltimore, and the Broncos are 8.5-point underdogs in Buffalo.

By removing the sportsbook's take and using implied probability from the odds, we can determine who Chiefs fans should expect to see.

Since both the Steelers and Broncos are big underdogs, oddsmakers imply the Chiefs will likely host the winner of Texans vs. Chargers. Los Angeles is a favorite, meaning Kansas City's division foe is the most likely opponent.

There is still a strong chance that the Texans win though, as the narrow spread suggests it'll be a close game. The Steelers are the least probable opponent as the weekend's biggest underdogs. For the Broncos, things are simple. Win and travel to Arrowhead, lose and you'll be watching on the couch.

FanDuel already has betting odds out for theoretical Chiefs vs. Chargers and Chiefs vs. Texans matchups, giving us an idea of what those markets could look like if all goes as expected.

Chiefs vs. Texans Divisional Round Odds

Moneyline: KC (-375) | HOU (+300)
Spread: KC -7.5 (-110) | HOU +7.5 (-110)
Total: 42.5 - Over (-115) | Under (-105)

We saw this matchup last month and the Chiefs won going away 27-19, which counted as a blowout in most weeks for Kansas City this year. The Texans are limping into the playoffs after playing in one of the NFL's weakest divisions, having followed up the Chiefs loss with a 31-2 shellacking at the Ravens' hands.

Fans shouldn't be worried about Houston. C.J. Stroud is a talented player but the Texans just don't have the roster to keep up with Kansas City. These odds give the Chiefs an implied 75.95% chance of winning with a score projection of 25 to 17.5.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Divisional Round Odds

Moneyline: KC (-260) | LAC (+215)
Spread: KC -5.5 (-115) | LAC +5.5 (-105)
Total: 42.5 - Over (-115) | Under (-105)

Interestingly, the look-ahead total is the exact same for this game as it is for a Texans contest, but the Chiefs are narrower favorites here of just 5.5 points. Kansas City has two wins over Los Angeles already by final scores of 17-10 and 19-17, though it's always difficult to face a squad that knows you this well.

As the most likely opponent, the Chargers are someone the Chiefs will be watching closely. Moneyline odds of -260 give Kansas City a 69.47% chance of winning, which is still something to be confident about. That total suggests an implied final score of 24 to 18.5.

Sportsbooks haven't yet put out odds for Chiefs vs. Steelers or Chiefs vs. Broncos matchups, though this story will be updated if they do. Barring a shocking upset, Kansas City doesn't need to concern itself too much with those teams anyway.

Should either of those wind up being the matchup, expect the Chiefs to dominate. They just dismantled the Steelers on Christmas Day and would get revenge on the beatdown the Broncos put on the backups.

In all likelihood, the Bills will host the Ravens in the opposite Divisional Round game. The Chiefs currently have +155 odds to win the AFC and +370 odds to win the Super Bowl.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.