The Chiefs enter Week 6 in what I would argue is their second must-win scenario so far this season. The first came when they entered MetLife Stadium following back-to-back losses to start the season, and walked away with a 22-9 victory over the New York Giants.
Now at 2-3 and fighting to keep up in the AFC West, the Chiefs need to walk out of Arrowhead with a win against probably the best team in the league through five weeks in the 4-1 Detroit Lions. Here's a breakdown of how things could shake out, along with what Kansas City needs to do to win.
Chiefs Offense vs. Lions Defense
Through the last two and a half weeks, the Chiefs' offense has been slicing through defenses. Kansas City has scored on 13 of its last 22 drives, with 10 resulting in a touchdown. That’s 45.4% of drives ending in TDs, an absurd rate that would almost double that of any other offense over the last couple of seasons.
Despite quarterback Patrick Mahomes' pick-six throw last week, he has been, in my opinion, nearly flawless all season and still (to my dismay) leads this team in rushing. Detroit comes into this game down its top two cornerbacks in D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold. This puts backup veterans Amik Robertson, Rock Ya-Sin, and Avonte Maddox in a bind. None of those guys are particularly fast, and if there’s anything the Chiefs' receivers possess, it’s blazing speed.
Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are excellent safeties and force turnovers like nobody else. While I expect the Chiefs to challenge Detroit down the field, Mahomes will have to be cognizant of where both ball-hawks are at all times.
While the Lions rank seventh in rush defense through five weeks, teams have typically trailed against them, so Detroit has yet to be truly challenged on the ground. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt both averaged over five yards per carry against Jacksonville. The more push the Chiefs' offensive line can get in the run game, the more it will force the safety tandem of Branch and Joseph to inch closer to the play, making it easier for speed threats like Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton to get free down the field.
This week brings quite the test for these Chiefs tackles. His name is Aiden Hutchinson, and he is a game-wrecking, top-five edge rusher. Hutchinson has accounted for five sacks already. He spends most of his time on the left side of the d-line, meaning he’ll be matching up against right tackle Jawaan Taylor the majority of the game. We all know how susceptible Taylor is to getting flagged for penalties. I foresee a high usage of 12 personnel from Andy Reid with two tight ends in the game to help chip and block Hutchinson.
Lions Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
Offensively, the Detroit Lions are incredibly tough to slow down, let alone beat. The Lions rank first in the league in points at nearly 35, seventh in rushing, and third in time of possession. QB Jared Goff completes 75.2% of his passes and has a 120.7 passer rating. His main target is superstar Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has over 400 yards and six TDs to show for so far. St. Brown does most of his damage from the slot.
This is why it's so important that Chiefs corner Kristian Fulton is returning this week. He is an outside corner, as is Jaylen Watson. It puts Trent McDuffie in his best role as a do-it-all cover corner from the inside. The St. Brown-McDuffie matchup will be one to watch this week. Lions speedster Jameson Williams is averaging over 20 yards per catch and can get to the endzone in a hurry. I’m not sure the Chiefs have a cornerback on defense who can run with Williams, but safeties Bryan Cook and Jaden Hicks have done a marvelous job so far at limiting deep throws.
Despite what the numbers show, if you’ve watched the Chiefs' games this season, they are an excellent run defense. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo centers his defense around stopping the run, and over the years, it's worked. Nick Bolton is having the best season of his career to date, while Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal have mightily improved from last year. Their job will be containing the running back duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
The pair has combined for nearly 800 yards and nine scores through five games and are the heartbeat of this offense. The Chiefs will lose if they allow Detroit to run all over them. Where the Lions are weakest is in their offensive line. It’s not the Lions' O-lines of the past. Detroit has had to experiment with three new pieces on the inside, and now left tackle Taylor Decker is a game-time decision with a chronic shoulder injury.
The best way to fluster Goff is through quick pressure. While that’s not the Chiefs' calling card, after last week's embarrassing performance versus the Jaguars, I expect Chris Jones, Charles Omenihu, George Karlaftis, and co. to bring the heat all game. I have to believe and give the benefit of the doubt that the Chiefs will win this game because, for the past decade, all this team has done is make the game-winning plays late in grind-out games like this one to secure a victory.
How the Chiefs can beat the Lions
- Mahomes is surgical against this banged-up Lions secondary
- A clean game from special teams
- Pressure Goff with four
- Urgency, effort, and aggression for all 60 minutes