Three straight trips to the Super Bowl and winning back-to-back Lombardi Trophies were accomplishments set by the Kansas City Chiefs that very few teams have ever come close to doing. Which is why trying to stomach a torturous 6-7 season has felt, well, weird. Kansas City is on the brink in Week 15, and while even with a win, the playoffs are far from guaranteed, a loss would send everybody at 1 Arrowhead Drive on a one-way ticket to the 2026 offseason.
The Los Angeles Chargers beat the Chiefs 27-21 in Brazil to begin the season, and another victory this week could send their rival opponent packing. In his second season as LA’s head coach, Jim Harbaugh has fully entrenched both his culture, attitude, and scheme into a very talented Chargers roster, led by superstar quarterback Justin Herbert.
I’ll keep on saying it because it’s true. This is another must-win game for K.C. in a game that is at home, but with a roster that is growing older, tired, and further depleted due to injuries.
Chiefs Shouldn't Be Intimidated by Chargers' Offense
It’s taken me a while to come to this conclusion, but Herbert is truly an elite quarterback. He has a massive 6-foot-6 235-pound stature, his arm talent is otherworldly, and his in-game processing has only improved with age in a now winning Chargers system. Herbert leads an offense ranked 11th in total yards per game, a top-three 47.1% third-down conversion rate, and is first in time of possession (33:13). One of Kansas City’s biggest weaknesses this season has been getting off the field on third down, which could prove to be a massive swing factor in this game for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Unlike the majority of his young career, Herbert's passing numbers won’t blow you away, and that’s for a multitude of factors. The skill position players around Herbert are less than satisfactory can be very hit or miss. The Chargers’ offensive line, much like Kansas City’s, has been decimated by injuries, as both elite starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater have been placed on injured reserve. This has forced Herbert to use his legs more often, which he is more than capable of doing, setting a career high in rushing yards (419) already this season.
With a struggling offensive line and a Chiefs front-four that played very well in last week’s Texans loss, Chris Jones and co. should be able to build on that and get to Herbert a healthy amount this week. Something the Chiefs could also use to their advantage is the fact that Herbert had surgery just two weeks ago on his left, non-throwing hand for a fractured bone. This forced Herbert to wear a massive protective glove during the Philadelphia Eagles game, and limited his ability to play free and loose. If the Chiefs' pass rush can get after him with a bum hand, Herbert may be prone to deliver a couple of errant throws that K.C. can capitalize on.
Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal take up all the carries from the backfield. Hampton is a big bruiser at 6’0”, 220 lbs, but has very good speed and shiftiness, while Vidal is a smaller 5’8” who is a big play waiting to happen from the ground or air. The Chiefs held Hampton to 3.2 yards per carry in Week 1, while Vidal didn’t see any work that week. I expect another stout defensive performance on the ground from the Chiefs' linebackers.
Third-year receiver Quentin Johnston torched Kansas City’s backfield in week one, scoring two TDs on 79 yards; however, over the past three weeks, Johnston has accumulated a meager 31 yards on nine targets. Either Johnston has regressed from a strong start to the season, or he is due for a big game. Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey are both excellent route runners against zone, and lead the Chargers’ passing attack in first down catches with 40 and 32, respectively. The Chiefs would do well to play rookie cornerback Nohl Williams more in this game, forcing elite cover man Trent McDuffie into the slot to defend these WR technicians, rather than slotting Chamarri Conner into the position, one that he has struggled in mightily his entire career.
The only threat at tight end is rookie Oronde Gadsden Jr., who had a fiery stretch in October but has since cooled off to the tune of seven receptions in his last four games. The Chargers are an offense that is capable of explosive plays in a well-designed scheme, but the lack of game-changing weapons at pass-catcher and a mangled offensive line gives the advantage to a Chiefs defense that has largely played up to its billing this season.
Chiefs' Offense Must Break Out of Recent Funk
What an absolute slog Kansas City’s offense has been post-bye-week. The Chiefs have averaged exactly 20 points per game over the last four weeks and have scored eight touchdowns to seven turnovers. Whether it's a stale scheme, a banged-up o-line, an invisible run game, or receivers who can’t catch the football, the Chiefs haven’t put together a clean game for over a month.
The Chiefs face a Chargers defense that ranks ninth in points allowed (20.8) and fourth in total yards (282.2). After a very solid showing in his first career game, rookie tackle Esa Pole projects to start once again at Patrick Mahomes' blindside, while Jaylon Moore assumes his duties as the backup right tackle. Trey Smith has been practicing and should return this week. Smith is a massive improvement from backup Mike Caliendo, especially in a game where the Chargers' pass rush has all kinds of talent.
Tuli Tuipulotu is having a fantastic 10 sack campaign, while trade deadline acquisition Odafe Oweh has five sacks of his own this season. Khalil Mack may be 34 years old, but rest assured, he still has elite hands and is one of the stronger edge rushers in the league. Kansas City will have its hands in this game, as it did have a good showing in week one, giving up only two sacks. Patrick Mahomes will yet again have the weight of the world on his shoulders, as the Chiefs have failed to put any semblance of a rushing attack around him for years.
Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are capable of providing short-yardage efficiency, but the sheer athleticism disparity between the Chiefs' RBs and the Chargers' leading tackler, Daiyan Henley, at linebacker is stark. In the passing game, LA has been exceptional at limiting big plays downfield and has multiple ball-hawking DBs in Donte Jackson, Tony Jefferson, and Derwin James, who have accounted for nine interceptions. Mahomes, despite a fair few of his turnovers, simply not his fault, has thrown 10 picks this season, half of them in the past four games. Giving the ball up in this game versus a defense that is hunting for it cannot happen for the Chiefs to pull out a win.
Rashee Rice remains the number one option, and I believe he will have an opportunity for a massive game this weekend. Much of the Chargers' focus will be on playing two-high safeties and limiting the number of deep balls Mahomes throws to Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy. This will allow for Rice and Travis Kelce, for that matter, lots of room to work with in the intermediate parts of the field in single coverage. It’ll be up to the Chiefs' pass-catchers to actually haul the ball in and get yards after catch.
The Verdict
The chances for Kansas City to make the playoffs are slimmer than they’ve ever been under head coach Andy Reid. The Chiefs have lost four of their last five games, which makes it difficult to project a win, but I have to believe that at some point, the leaders on this team are going to will K.C. to a victory in one final push before the season’s end.
Week 15 Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 20
Chiefs Keys to Success
- Limit Justin Herbert’s out-of-pocket scrambles
- Force turnovers on the defensive side of the ball
- Go down slinging it with Mahomes inside the hashmarks