Losers of four straight, the injury-riddled Kansas City Chiefs host the 12-3 Denver Broncos on a Week 17 Christmas night. It’s a short rest week for both teams, but for the Chiefs, this season has been all too long. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is probably rehabbing this very moment from a torn ACL, while backup Gardner Minshew suffered a significant leg injury that ended his season just a quarter into last week's game.
That puts longtime practice squad QB Chris Oladokun in the limelight against a truly ferocious Broncos defense that will no doubt look to right the ship after their worst performance of the season in last week's loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, giving up 34 points. While the Chiefs have absolutely nothing to play for aside from a higher draft slot, the Broncos have everything to play for, as they're in contention for the AFC's coveted No. 1 seed.
Broncos' Offense will Test Chiefs' Defense
Denver’s offense and specifically second-year signal-caller Bo Nix have been on a tear lately, playing some of its best football post-week 10 bye. Nix ranks sixth in the NFL in passing yards (3,608) and has thrown just two interceptions in over a month. He’s protected by one of the better offensive lines in the league, led by Pro Bowl selections, right tackle Garet Bolles and guard Quinn Meinerz.
Despite losing starting running back J.K. Dobbins earlier in the season, rookie second-round back RJ Harvey has been a revelation. Harvey has found paydirt each of his last four games and is a serious duel-threat weapon, hauling in 41 catches on the season. Kansas City got gashed in the run game last week, giving up over 160 yards, and as they look to shut down select starters for the season, expect Harvey to have a big game.
Leading Denver’s passing game is veteran wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who is closing in on 1,000 yards to go along with seven TDs and a team-leading 49 converted first downs. Sutton has been the man in Denver for some time now and should be able to feast on a Chiefs secondary that projects to be without top cornerback Trent McDuffie yet again due to a knee injury. Second-year receiver Troy Franklin is having one of the more underrated second-year breakout seasons in the league, on pace for nearly 70 catches and 800 yards. Franklin was heavily targeted in Week 11's game against the Chiefs, ending with 84 receiving yards and four catches on eight targets.
I was disappointed to see the Chiefs' defensive coaching staff fail to play its younger pieces, who could have major roles next season, in favor of older veterans, most likely to leave the team after these last two games. Linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill do not need to see a combined 141 snaps out of 146 when rookies like Jeffrey Bassa and Cooper McDonald need meaningful snaps to take into the offseason. The Chiefs have two talented young defensive backs in Jaden Hicks and Nohl Williams, who need to play more than 23% and 55% of the snaps, respectively.
Mahomes-less Chiefs Offense Could Be in Trouble vs. Broncos
As every Chiefs fan saw last week, it turns out that when you lose a generational talent at QB like Patrick Mahomes, your offense will sputter into oblivion, despite having what should be one heck of a play caller and offensive schemer in head coach Andy Reid. In all fairness, the Chiefs looked better with Oladokun at the helm than Minshew, but the word better is quite relative in the form of three field goal drives and nothing more.
Kansas City will most likely start both third-string tackles (Chu Godrick and Esa Pole) for the remainder of the season, as they have been doing lately anyway, due to a myriad of injuries at the position. If it were up to me, I would slot in guard Hunter Nourzad for Trey Smith, as Smith has seemingly battled through injuries all season, and Nourzad could very well be next year’s first-in-line backup at all three interior O-line spots. It would make Oladokun’s life a lot harder, however, against a Denver defense that leads the league with 63 sacks.
The run game has been a sore spot for the Chiefs for quite some time, and facing a Broncos front seven that gives up the second-fewest yards allowed per game at 90.2, I’m not expecting much on the ground for KC. What I am expecting is for Isiah Pacheco to not see 73% of the snaps when there is no chance he is on this roster after this season. As I said last week, the Chiefs would be smart to feed rookie back Brashard Smith in a multitude of ways, given how versatile a player he is. Eight snaps last week were a disservice to Smith.
Oladokun, if nothing else, did show some prowess throwing the ball, particularly outside the pocket in scramble drills. He hit Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown for two big chunk plays and added a 31-yard toss to Pacheco. While Denver may not give Oladokun the chance to escape a collapsing pocket, I think we will see some more flashes of nice plays from the third-strong QB.
Another young rookie who has actual talent but can’t seem to see the field is WR Jalen Royals, who got just three snaps last week, while JuJu Smith-Schuster was given an egregious 91% of snaps and totaled just one catch. All the respect in the world for who JuJu is and the big plays he’s given the Chiefs since 2022, but he’s nearly 30 years old. It’s simply over for him in Kansas City. Reid needs to recognize that and play his recently drafted, fresh pass-catcher in Royals.
The Verdict
Look, it sucks to say it, but the Chiefs winning or losing this game against Denver has no meaning whatsoever to this current season, and while I am not prompting the Chiefs to ‘tank,’ making calculated personnel decisions for the betterment of the team for next year during a lost season is not tanking. It’s a valuable, long-term business decision.
Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Chiefs 10
Chiefs Keys to Success
- Play the young guys who are actually going to contribute next year