This ongoing rivalry showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs has been the gift that keeps on giving for years. It’s a classic rivalry game and one that will have massive implications on division ranking and playoff seeding for each team as the two AFC powerhouses collide in Week 9.
Kansas City has won five of its last six games, with the offense scoring 29.3 points per game over that span, while the defense ranks in the top five in both points and yards allowed. Buffalo comes off a week in which it laid it on the Carolina Panthers 40-9, jumping the Bills' record to 5-2. Quarterback Josh Allen has largely played mistake-free football, running back James Cook has nearly 900 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns, and the defense seems to be forming into shape.
It projects to yet another classic Chiefs-Bills, Mahomes-Allen football game at a chilly Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. Here’s what to expect:
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
I think it's safe to say that the Chiefs' offense is back to the point where it’s expected that they put up a bevy of points each week. And this game should be no different, as while the Bills have shown spurts of defensive capabilities, the unit has been flawed all season, and it starts up front.
Buffalo ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed per game, with multiple injuries along the defensive tackle position, most notably Ed Oliver, Buffalo’s best defensive player, who tore his bicep in the Carolina game and was put on injured reserve. Chiefs right guard Trey Smith should return this week, after back spasms held him back against Washington. The Chiefs have been picky with when they run the ball, and while the matchup says they should lean on pounding the ball, it may not be as effective as it would have been.
Running back Isiah Pacheco is in real jeopardy of missing this game after sustaining an MCL sprain in last week's win. Kareem Hunt has performed very well in his short-yardage, pass-protection role, but Hunt is past the point in his career where he can handle a heavy workload. Rookie back Brashard Smith is more of a scat-back, and not a guy who should be asked to run inside the tackles 15 times. I think the Chiefs remain tepid in the run game and choose their spots, but the running game needs to be effective when called upon.
Buffalo has invested a lot of capital into this defensive pass-rush. The Bills' top trio of edge rushers, A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau, and Joey Bosa, have combined for eight sacks, 39 tackles, and a multitude of forced fumbles. These guys are fast off the snap and are very used to Mahomes’ checks at the line, how he moves within the pocket, and to expect the unexpected. Despite the injuries at DT, DaQuan Jones, Deone Walker, and Larry Ogunjobi are all starter-quality players.
While Buffalo doesn’t present the superstar pass-rusher of an Aiden Hutchinson or Maxx Crosby that the Chiefs have faced previously, the Bills have waves of unrelenting pressure that tend to wear an offensive line out by the end of games.
It remains a question mark whether star linebacker Matt Milano is going to play in this game, but even assuming he does, this Bills back seven is ripe for the plucking. Head coach Sean McDermott runs a very vanilla scheme, based around knowing your assignments and being at the right spot at the right time. That’s all well and good against lesser QBs, but facing Mahomes is another beast. Buffalo makes a living on keeping its two top safeties, Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp, play 20-plus yards off the line of scrimmage, and assembling a three-cornerback zone look for the majority of the games.
Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice caught all nine of his targets last week and feasted over the middle of the field. I expect another great showing from him. Tight end Travis Kelce, since the return of various Chiefs receivers, has benefited immensely from the lack of eyes on him escaping down the field for several explosive plays (20-plus yards). Kelce has had his battles with Milano over the years, and even at 36 years old, I’d take Kelce in that matchup.
WRs Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown seem very secure in their roles and are much faster and more talented than any of these Bills' corners. I expect a fair number of posts, seven, and nine routes from these two, using both their route-running and start-stop ability to their advantage.
One guy who has been very quiet as of late has been Tyquan Thornton. At no fault of his own, Thornton has been relegated to drop in the depth chart, but he’s been no less effective, leading the league in yards-per-reception (22.2) up until last week. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs decide to give him some run and see if Thornton can get free against these slower defensive backs.
Chiefs Defense vs. Bills Offense
While Allen is a wildly talented quarterback and an absolute freight train when he’s got a head of steam, I’d argue that Cook has been the Bills' best offensive player this season, and it’s not close. Cook is just short of 400 rushing yards before contact, meaning the holes that Buffalo’s offensive line creates are gaping, and the fourth-year back is taking full advantage.
The Bills are the first-ranked rushing team in the league, but the Chiefs have shown massive resilience to elite rushing attacks this season, against the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions.
The addition of Mike Pennel to the Chiefs, however much his workload will be, is meaningful, as both he and Derrick Nnadi are very good run fitters. On the offensive line, Buffalo has no real weakness with two very good to elite tackles in Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. For the Chiefs to create real pass-rush pressure on Allen, Chris Jones needs to show up in a big way. Jones, while eating up double-teams and still being very disruptive, only has two sacks to his name.
The Chiefs will need their Hall of Fame defensive tackle to make a couple of game-altering plays.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has shown confidence in this defense that he can present a multitude of different looks game-to-game, depending on the matchup. A three-linebacker approach with two-deep safeties is largely what I expect in this game. Leo Chenal is an absolute Swiss army knife and will likely get the difficult assignment of being the QB spy on Allen. The Chiefs, as of late, have been giving up far too many rushing lanes to quarterbacks, despite excellent coverage on the back end. If the Chiefs allow Allen to run free, they will lose this game.
When it comes to receiving options for Buffalo, it’s not necessarily the talent that separates them; it’s the overwhelming size. Khalil Shakir is just 6’0”, 190 lbs, but averages over nine yards after the catch, and is Allen’s favorite target for anything close to the line of scrimmage. The Bills run 12-personnel to death, with their two big tight ends in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, who both measure out to be 6’4” and over 245 lbs. Wide receivers Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer are not overly skilled and possess little to no YAC ability, but as red-zone, jump-ball threats, they have a massive size advantage over KC’s cornerback room.
Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson continue to play lockdown at corner, but I wouldn’t mind seeing a little more of rookie Nohl Williams in this matchup. Like I said before, Spags' game plans are fluid, and I think this game requires a certain aggressive play style that Williams presents to counter Buffalo’s big lineup. This Chiefs defense, albeit against undermanned opponents for parts of these games, has allowed just 24 points over the last three weeks.
Guarding Allen is a terrifying ask of any defense, but one that Kansas City has repeatedly slowed down. Containing Cook and Allen in the run game is obviously the swing factor, but if the coverage can stay strong throughout, I think the Chiefs could steal what would be just their second win on the road.
How can the Chiefs beat the Bills?
- Let Mahomes uncork the football down the field
- Contain both Josh Allen and James Cook on the ground
- Chris Jones needs to have a statement game