History Says to Bet on the Chiefs in Week 3 vs. Bears
![Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) calls a play during the second quarter of a NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 17-9. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_1080,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape%2Fcover%2Fsport%2Fbb8f95a7e71828ab9a19ac2d8e9661e0bcdc6180d00c499dd9856dc1a7196797.jpg "Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) calls a play during the second quarter of a NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 17-9. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]")
The Chiefs are massive, double-digit favorites over the Bears in Week 3. There’s been much said about the Chiefs’ mediocre record as huge favorites, but that narrative is overblown.
In fact, history says Chicago is terrible as double-digit underdogs and bettors should load up on Kansas City this Sunday.
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Let’s look at the odds before I explain why the value is with Kansas City.
Bears vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total
Bears vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick
Chicago lost both of its first two games by double-digits, a 38-20 drubbing by the Packers and a 27-17 loss to the Bucs.
Now, the Bears’ league-worst defense gets to face an angry Patrick Mahomes. As Travis Kelce gets healthier, I anticipate the Chiefs’ offense to improve. That’s bad news, Bears fans.
While Kansas City is just 4-8 against the spread (ATS) in its last 12 games as double-digit favorites, the Chiefs have actually covered four of their last six at home in this spot. Kansas City struggles a bit as double-digit favorites on the road, but at home, the Chiefs are a strong bet.
Justin Fields has had 1 game with 320+ passing yards since he graduated from high school.
— Jay Cuda (@JayCuda) September 20, 2023
Patrick Mahomes has had 60.
Recent wins for Kansas City as double-digit home favorites include a 14-point victory over Seattle, a 16-point effort against the Rams, a 36-10 domination of Pittsburgh, and a 48-9 complete beatdown of the Raiders.
The Bears, on the other hand, are a dreadful 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as double-digit underdogs, failing to cover the spread by an average of 9.58 points per contest.
Chicago is overmatched, plain and simple. The Bears have one of the worst coaching staffs in the sport and a roster marred by awful contracts and square pegs in round holes.
Don’t overthink this one. The Chiefs should win going away as the organization keeps righting the ship from the Week 1 disappointment against Detroit.