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Lions vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 1 (Expect Fireworks)

Aug 19, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks on against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 19, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks on against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Chiefs start their march for a third Super Bowl championship in five years tonight, hosting the Detroit Lions in front of what is sure to be a raucous crowd at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

Kansas City has won in Week 1 every year of Patrick Mahomes’ career but will be short-handed tonight without Chris Jones and perhaps without Travis Kelce.

Odds are creeping towards Detroit but the Chiefs are still favored in the game. I’ve got one bet I’m targeting with value and think we’re in for a masterful Mahomes performance.

Let’s check out the odds before I explain my best bet for the contest.

Lions vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Lions vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

In every Week 1 game Mahomes has played, the Chiefs scored at least 33 points and OVER hit in the contest. Even if Kelce doesn’t play or is limited, and I don’t expect him on the field, Mahomes has more than proven he’s capable of carrying a depleted unit.

Detroit ranked in the bottom five last season in opponent yards per play, yards per pass attempt and yards per rush. Despite bringing in some solid defensive players in the offseason, the Lions still had one of the league’s worst defenses and I don’t see them flipping the script overnight.

The Chiefs’ defense will be patched together by a bit of duct tape. We know Jones isn’t playing, L’Jarius Sneed was banged up all training camp, Charles Omenihu is suspended, etc. Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is a wizard and he’ll be able to find the holes in Kansas City’s defense.

Put everything together and I love the OVER in this game. It’s hit in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 16 September games and I don’t see either defense slowing down the explosive offenses at hand.

Let’s watch the points pile up in joy and take the over with confidence.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.