Lions Defense Has One MAJOR Weakness Patrick Mahomes Will Exploit
It’s no secret that Detroit’s defense was dreadful last season. The organization made improvements but there is still one major schematic weakness that Patrick Mahomes will take advantage of tonight.
Not that Mahomes needs any help lighting a defense on fire, but he’s got some assistance here. With a fully healthy ankle after an offseason of rest, Mahomes should find plenty of running room against the Lions.
Because the Lions play as much man coverage as anyone in football, they have given up a lot of rushing production to opposing QBs... pic.twitter.com/ZpRXkKQQbZ
— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) September 6, 2023
In fact, the Lions surrendered the most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks in 2022 at 41.2 yards per game!
We know that Mahomes can use his legs when he needs to, as some of his most famous and impactful plays came on the ground, but now he’ll have an opportunity to scramble when he wants to.
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop
FanDuel Sportsbook has Mahomes’ rushing prop set at 17.5, while other sportsbooks have it listed even higher. Oddsmakers expect Patrick to run around a bit, and you’ll notice that every quarterback in the above tweet cleared this 17.5 number.
Patrick Mahomes scrambled 26 yards for a first down, increasing the Chiefs win probability from 69.1% to 81.2% (+12.1%).
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 13, 2023
Mahomes has picked up 24 first downs on scramble runs in the postseason since 2018, more than double any other QB.#SBLVII | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/UK8xNIjB5j
Mahomes typically only scrambles when the situation demands it, but he may find it more necessary in this matchup. The Detroit offense is likely to put up points, and if Travis Kelce can’t go then the Chiefs will need to manufacture scores as much as possible.
That likely means more scrambling for Mahomes, especially given the Lions seem content to let quarterbacks pick up yards on the ground.
I expect Mahomes to hit the over in this rushing prop and I’ll be watching early in the game to see if he tests Detroit’s linebackers. If the Chiefs stretch the field with a few deep passes early, we could see the Lions sell out to stop the deep ball and have Mahomes pick up yards rushing as a result.
Andy Reid and the coaching staff have had months to prepare for this matchup. You can bet they’re locked in on this major weakness and Mahomes will use it to his advantage.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.