My favorite season-long player prop for the Chiefs thus far is Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards OVER. Barring injury, I can’t imagine him not hitting this over and I’m actively hammering it ahead of training camp.
Pacheco solidified himself as the anchor of Kansas City’s ground game in the second half of the season and playoffs, but oddsmakers haven’t adequately adjusted to his new reality as RB1 for the Chiefs.
Here’s why I love the OVER for Pacheco’s rushing yards prop:
Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop
Despite not receiving consistent touches for the first half of the season, Pacheco still ended the year with 830 rushing yards before adding 262 all-purpose yards in the playoffs. Including the postseason, he averaged 4.96 yards per carry while demonstrating excellent burst and power.
He now enters the new year as the clear rushing leader with Jerick McKinnon the preferred option through the air, but Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is still set at only 800.5 yards. That he cleared this prop despite only receiving double-digit rushing attempts in nine games last season makes this the perfect OVER to target.
Pacheco’s aggressive running style punishes defenses for committing to stopping the pass, and he led the NFL with only 16.6% of his rushing attempts going for one or fewer yards.
Kansas City’s offensive line should be even better this year after adding Jawaan Taylor. I fully expect a 1,000-yard season from Pacheco and am stunned his prop is so low.
The main concern would be injuries, as Pacheco is still rehabbing from off-season surgery. That being said, he’s expected to be ready for Week 1, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he surpassed 800 rushing yards before the start of December.
Don’t waste any time on this one. Sportsbooks are sleeping on Pacheco but you don’t have to. Slam the OVER on his rushing yards prop and enjoy every thunderous run throughout the season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.