Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills, Week 5 betting advice
The Kansas City Chiefs have had the most interesting matchup two of the last four weeks. First, it was the matchup against the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. Then it was Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2. The Los Angeles Chargers game in Week 3 would have also made the list, but the NFC Championship preview game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams together.
In Week 5, the Chiefs will be in the biggest game of the week for the third time this year when the Buffalo Bills come to One Arrowhead Drive.
The Bills and Chiefs met twice last year, most notably in the AFC Championship game. Despite the offensive firepower that the Bills boasted in 2020, they always failed to be very successful against the Chiefs.
However, these two teams are completely different from last year. The Chiefs are the 31st worst defense, while the Bills are the best. The Bills and Chiefs are actually tied for top offense in the league as well. This game will absolutely not be like last year’s matchups.
So, in order to analyze this year’s matchup and potential AFC Championship preview, we are taking a look at the betting lines.
Author’s Note: This is not financial advice. Bet at your own risk. All odds provided by WynnBET
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: Favorable Prop Bets
Passing Completions OVER: Josh Allen (26.5) and Patrick Mahomes (26.5)
It is very important that we are completely honest right up front: the Buffalo Bills are not the top defense in the NFL. Numerically, yes, the Buffalo Bills technically have allowed the least number of points in the league and have handled any quarterback thrown at them.
However, when all you have to do is look at the Bills’ schedule up to this point to realize that these numbers are unreliable. The Bills have played the Steelers, the Dolphins, the Football Team, and the Texans.
The Steelers are tied for the league’s 28th offense (by the way, the Bills lost this game), the Dolphins are the league’s 31st offense (the Dolphins were also without their starting QB for most of the game), and the Texans are also tied for 28th worst offense (not just without their starting quarterback, but also without their second-string quarterback).
I say all of that to say that any talk or thoughts of defense should be left at the door when it comes to this matchup.
The quarterbacks are going to be slinging the ball, and with the receivers both teams now have, there will be many completions. 26.5 is really low for completions, so take the overs.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Tyreek Hill, Josh Gordon, Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen
There will be touchdowns, and many of them.
Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill have had unbelievable chemistry this year, and no one should bank on that stopping this week. Especially after the duo put together a hat trick last week.
Josh Gordon has been activated this week and all signs point to him getting significant playing time. The Chiefs offense has recently been utilizing a ton of shallow cross concepts with speedy receivers. It works because Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce force the defensive coverage back and soften up the underbelly of the defense. Josh Gordon will be able to catch one of these passes easily, and from there, his speed, balance, and drive to prove himself will put him in the end zone.
On the Buffalo side, two things are undeniably true about the Chiefs’ defense: They can not stop route-running receivers and they can not stop running QBs.
Stefon Diggs will be able to open his hugely underrated toolbox and pull out every route and release and move to hurt the Chiefs’ defense. He will get wide open in the red zone and walk into the end zone at one point.
Josh Allen has wheels, which means he is going to run straight at Chris Jones on every red zone snap. If Jones handles it, or the Chiefs commit any other player to try and assist on those plays, Allen throws it. When Jones does not handle it, and the Chiefs forget to give Allen a cover player, Allen is going to sprint for the end zone and waltz in.
Total Rushing Yards OVER: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (53.5 Yards)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been unstoppable the last few weeks, and for that reason, he will continue to make the list.
The Bills have not been given up many rushing yards, largely because they have seen the fifth least rushing attempts. The Chiefs are coming into the game with the eighth-most rushing yards and fourth-most yards per carry, despite having only the seventh most rushing attempts. The Bills have also played three of the bottom six teams in terms of yards per carry (Texans, Dolphins, Steelers).
If the Chiefs stick with the run, which they should, CEH should have another great game.
Small note: There is a real potential that it may also rain Sunday night in Kansas City, which only increases the likelihood of this happening.