Kansas City Royals: Three reasonable expectations for 2020 season

3) The Kansas City Royals finish with the fourth worst record in the MLB

The baseballprospectus.com 2020 PECOTA standings are not flattering to the Kansas City Royals, having them with the fourth worst record in the MLB with 25.3 wins projected.

Hitting problem

The Royals have a problem with the way their roster is constructed offensively. The problem is a lack of meaningful contact.

The Royals roster strikes out too much and they do not have MLB ready replacement depth. If the Summer Camp has shown us anything, it is that the Royals are woefully unprepared to handle any of their key contributors offensively missing time due to injury or illness.

The 2019 Royals ranked 14th in the MLB with a 23.1 K%, 19th with a .247 batting average, 26th with a .154 ISO, and 27th with a .401 SLG. The most recent loss of 2019 breakout Hunter Dozier to a coronavirus positive test worsens the problem.

Any injuries or illness to Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, and Jorge Soler will completely derail the 2020 season for the Royals.

Offseason and summer additions of Maikel Franco and Franchy Cordero both have promising power potential, but have difficulty making consistent meaningful contact at the major league level.

Franco, who is designated to replace Dozier at third base, struggled in his six seasons in the hitter friendly confines for the Philadelphia Phillies. Considering Franco’s lofty prospect status, he put together a disappointing .249/.302/.431 (89 wRC+) for the Phillies before coming over to the Royals.

Cordero is still young with outstanding power potential, but his 38.8 K% at the major league level is hard to ignore. Cordero and Bubba Starling look to be Dozier’s immediate replacements in right field.

Pitching problem

Another problem plaguing the 2020 Royals roster construction is the pitching. The Royals defense should rank toward the top of the league in 2020, but the pitching staff looks to continue their woeful inability to produce K/9. The 2019 Royals pitching staff ranked 29th in the league with a 7.77 K/9 and 26th in the league with a 3.68 BB/9.

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The pitching friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium and consistent excellent defense the Royals possess is not enough to overcome the fact the Royals pitchers cannot get themselves out of tough situations.

The Royals starting rotation appears to have a revolving door quality to it heading into the 2020 season. There is a strong likelihood several of the Royals top pitching prospects will make their MLB debuts in 2020.

Pitching prospects tend to go through “growing pains” in their first action against MLB hitters. So even though the chance of an MLB debut of a promising young pitching prospect sounds great, it will come at a cost.

I encourage the Royals front office to start the service time clock with some of the pitching prospects like Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Tyler Zuber. If the 2020 season goes sideways quickly, bringing up the young arms will help in the long-term plans of the Royals to get them some experience facing MLB competition.

The 2020 Royals may not have a choice in bringing up their prospects early if the rate of coronavirus positives does not slow down or the normal wear and tear of MLB injuries does not force their hand.

Anything is possible in a 60-game sprint, but I expect the Royals lack of pitching and inability to make consistent contact at the plate to be the drivers to a poor season. Having a Top-5 pick for the 2021 Amateur Draft is not a bad thing. If the Royals finish at the bottom of the league, they will get the opportunity to add another stellar pitching prospect to their farm system.

I wrote an article detailing the possibility and dilemma of who to choose with the number one overall pick in the 2021 draft here.