KC Chiefs: Looking at potential contract for Patrick Mahomes

A potential Patrick Mahomes contract discussion has dominated the airwaves and social media chatter since before the 2019 season even started. What might a Mahomes deal actually look like for the KC Chiefs?

Computing a Patrick Mahomes contract is difficult and complicated, much like deals for other quarterbacks in recent years. His actual value to the Kansas City Chiefs is obviously far greater than any dollar figure found in a contract, regardless of what the organization is willing to pay.

Would Mahomes ‘take less’ with the Chiefs on their new contract? That’s an impossible question to answer unless you determine what he should get and what he would take. Here is an attempt to calculate what he’s worth and what might he get paid. Are my numbers right? Too low? Only history will tell us for sure.

For analysis, I chose to look at a series of quarterbacks and their performance in the two seasons before they signed their contract they now play on. Some deals were signed a few years ago while some went into affect this past season. We’ll look at both in terms of modern dollar valuation.

If we take the average of the difference, we get Mahomes’ two seasons as a starter coming out above the average being .133, or 13.3% increase. Let’s keep that in mind. 13.3%

Now, let’s take a look at the contracts of these quarterbacks, both at the value they signed for AND what their contract market value looks like based on the estimated 2020 Salary Cap figure of $200 million.

We use the current valuation of a contract to make up for the fact a contract for a player like Derek Carr or Matthew Stafford was signed multiple years ago and the cap has gone up significantly since then, and to accurately determine what Mahomes is worth, we have to look at what he’s going to be looking at this offseason.

Remember that the Chiefs had Patrick Mahomes at a 13.3% and are going to use the current valuation. The average expectation is four years of a contract.

That’s a significant contract for Mahomes, but what is the most interesting is the guaranteed money, right at 69.88% of the total money – but wait, there’s more.

Three young quarterbacks signed big money deals recently: Jimmy Garoppolo two years ago and Jared Goff and Carson Wentz signed their new deals last year. The other quarterbacks had a track record of performance, in some cases awards and championships, before they signed a deal, but these three essentially signed new deals at the first opportunity.

Taking the difference, Patrick Mahomes comes out far above and beyond these three young quarterbacks. His performance comes out at 23.58% above the rest of these young signal callers.

Now, let’s take a look at their contracts and specifically what impact that could have on a Mahomes’ contract.

If the average of the current value is 143.544 over the course of four years and you factor in the statistical increase in Mahomes’ performance and value compared to the others, we get a contract that could look like this.

That is a large chunk of change; A massive chunk of change actually, and what’s more, the $130 million in guarantees comes out to just at three years of the four year contract estimate. Regardless, that’s a lot of money. Due to recency, age and experience, I would imagine this number is the most likely to be accurate to what he’s worth at this point.

To address fans wanting Mahomes to take less than value – a hometown discount – there is one way that can be done and the young signal caller still get his cash. While it’s not likely, the Chiefs could follow the Kirk Cousins contract model and guarantee the entire contract for Mahomes.

If the Kansas City Chiefs were to fully grantee a contract for Mahomes, they actually increase the guaranteed money to the signal caller and his total money is lowered. Do I think he would do this? Not likely, but it’s an idea. The $140 million in guarantees in this example is far and away the most ever in the NFL.

Regardless, the KC Chiefs need to make sure to get this contract done this offseason. Waiting until next offseason only ensures the signal caller will be significantly more expensive. The cap will go up, which would in turn increase what the signal caller would need; Another strong season next year and the price goes up even further from there.