Kansas City Royals: 2020 rotation prediction pre-Spring Training
By Cody Rickman
Jakob Junis
- 2019 stats – 5.24 ERA, 1.426 WHIP, 164 Ks, 58 BBs (1 IBB and 11 HBP), with a 4.82 FIP in 175.1 innings worth 1.5 WAR
- 2020 Steamer projection – 4.78 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 160 Ks, 55 BBs (10 HBP), with a 4.72 FIP in 182.0 innings worth 1.9 WAR
Jakob Junis is an average number four starter who likely belongs in the bullpen to maximize his value. As the roster stands entering in Spring Training, Junis is the most likely to join Keller, Duffy, and Montgomery in the rotation. Junis has thrown back to back season of 170+ innings with consistent K/9 above 8.0 and BB/9 below 3.0.
Junis is another arm in the rotation who relies heavily on two pitches to generate outs. He throws his 91.5 mph fastball 50.9% and his slider 43.8% of the time with his 84.8 mph change-up only being thrown 5.3% of the time.
His fastball got hit hard in 2019, bringing the pitch value down to -22.7. The slider Junis threw in 2019 was a plus pitch producing a 14.7 pitch value up from 4.2 in 2018. The change-up improved its value as well in 2019 but remains a slightly below average offering at -1.8 vs -4.6 in 2018.
Junis has seen his hard-hit rate increase each year in the MLB. Maxing out at 42.6% in 2019, up from 41.0% in 2018, and 36.7% in 2017. If the Royals were interested in employing the opener/follower strategy in 2020, Junis would be a prime candidate to be a follower.
Once the Royals pitching prospects are deemed ready to join the MLB roster, then the Royals will maximize the usage of Junis as a bullpen arm. Junis could be used very similar to how the Tampa Bay Rays use Chaz Roe out of the bullpen.
Roe uses his plus slider +60% of the time in his appearance. Jakob Junis would benefit in this role, as his slider is his only plus offering generating weak contact and swing and miss.