Kansas City Royals: 2020 rotation prediction pre-Spring Training
By Cody Rickman
Danny Duffy
- 2019 stats – 4.34 ERA, 1.309 WHIP, 115 Ks, 46 BBs (8 HBP), with a 4.78 FIP in 130.2 innings worth 1.3 WAR
- 2020 Steamer projection – 4.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 159 Ks, 64 BBs (8 HBP), with a 4.86 FIP in 184.0 innings worth 1.8 WAR
Danny Duffy looked like he was an outstanding extension decision by Dayton Moore following back-to-back strong seasons in 2016 and 2017. Duffy’s extension following the 2017 season of 3.6 WAR gave the Royals the impression they were retaining a top of the rotation starter until 2022. Unfortunately, he has suffered from inconsistency and injury the past seasons.
Heading into the 2020 season, Duffy is coming off a strong finish with stellar performances in September and October in 2019. After coming back from a DL stint, Duffy pitched 30.1 innings of 2.37 ERA, 25 Ks, and 10 BBs holding hitters to a .185/.264/.287 slash line.
There’s a lot to like in a fully healthy and competitive Duffy heading into 2020. His fastball velocity isn’t what it used to be when he was dialing it up to 97 mph in 2017, but he has refined his style to take advantage of generating weak contact with well-located pitches. Having his battery mate back in Salvador Perez will increase his value with Perez’s experience in game calling.
Duffy has plus value with his fastball, slider, and change-up offerings and a return to plus value of his curveball will give Duffy another weapon in his arsenal. The command of the curveball has eluded Duffy in recent years and this may be due to injury. Having the big looper in his arsenal should help increase his swinging strike rate, increase his K/9, and allow Duffy to keep his hard-hit rate below 37%.
Duffy’s successful campaigns in 2016 and 2017 were possible by keeping his BB/9 rate at 2.10 (2016) and 2.52 (2017). If health is the key to consistent success for Duffy and his control, then a good statistical indicator for Duffy in 2020 will be if he’s able to keep his BB/9 around 3.0.
Danny Duffy has the competitiveness and ability to exceed his projections and pitch a full season of 4.25 ERA of 180+ innings. A strong season from Duffy could draw considerable trade interest at the trade deadline with his looming last contract year in 2021 approaching fast.