Kansas City Royals: 2020 rotation prediction pre-Spring Training

The Kansas City Royals pitchers report to Spring Training on February 12th. The starting pitching staff struggled in 2019 leading the Royals to 103 losses, who is expected to break Spring Training camp in the starting rotation?

The Kansas City Royals pitching staff was awful in 2019 contributing a 5.20 ERA (4.60 AL average) and 1.479 WHIP (1.348 AL average) en route to losing 103 games. The Royals have some exciting pitching prospect talent near ready for MLB action, but they need several pitches on the 40-man roster to step-up and bridge the gap until the prospect talent is ready.

Here are my starting rotation predictions for the 2020 season prior to Spring Training.

Brad Keller

• 2019 stats – 4.19 ERA, 1.355 WHIP, 122 Ks, 70 BBs (2 IBB and 9 HBP), with a 4.35 FIP in 165.1 innings worth 2.2 WAR
• 2020 Steamer projection – 4.74 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 137 Ks, 77 BBs (8 HBP), with a 4.78 FIP in 182.0 innings worth 1.8 WAR

Brad Keller has been a rule 5 draft success story for the Kansas City Royals. He produced 4.8 WAR in his two seasons with the Royals since being acquired in the 2017 rule 5 draft. In late August of the 2019 season, Keller was shut down for the remainder of the season due to arm fatigue.

The Royals coaching staff noticed a spike in Keller’s August walk numbers were spiking and he was struggling maintaining his velocity in the later innings of his starts. Since the Royals were on their way to 103 losses, shutting down Keller – arguably their best pitcher – was a smart move in preparation for the 2020 season.

Keller has been excellent in generating groundballs and limiting home runs in his two seasons with the Royals. A combination of a groundball percentage above 50%, a HR/9 rate below 1.00, and BB/9 rate below 4.00 have been the ingredients of success for Keller.

Keller shined his brightest in March, April, and July of the 2019 season, but he saw his struggles in May, June, and August. Keller had a stellar HR/9 rate in 2018 at 0.45, but he started to see more balls leave the park in 2019 at a 0.82 HR/9 rate.

Keller’s groundball rate also decreased from 54.4% in 2018 to 50.0% in 2019. Limiting free passes and the long ball will important for Keller in 2020. His infield defense should be adequate enough to allow his above-average groundball rate to be utilized effectively.

Keller’s success is reliant on a limited arsenal of two pitches with a plus sinker averaging 93.4 mph and plus slider averaging 85.0 mph. Keller all but abandoned his change-up in his 2019 starts, throwing the offering only 0.5%. There is a lot of danger for regression with Keller if he is still unable to develop a quality third pitch offering.

Keller pitched the most innings of his professional career in 2019, so it is no surprise he suffered from arm fatigue late in the season. Throwing exclusively sinking fastballs and sliders is taxing on one’s arm.

Hopefully Keller has dedicated himself to his training program this offseason and will be able to increase his workload. If Keller is able to develop confidence in a quality change-up for 2020 and is able to continue his consistent performance then he will become a strong candidate for a long-term extension.