KC Royals: Four pitchers due for bounce back season in 2020

Mike Montgomery (Starting Pitcher)

• 2019 stats – 4.95 ERA, 1.615 WHIP, 69 Ks, 34 BBs (1 IBB and 4 HBP), with a 5.52 FIP in 91.0 innings worth -0.2 WAR
• 2020 Steamer projection – 4.88 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 103 Ks, 58 BBs (8 HBP), with a 4.95 FIP in 149.0 innings worth 1.1 WAR

Mike Montgomery was acquired by the Royals on June 15th, 2019 from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for catcher Martin Maldonado. Montgomery was immediately plugged into the starting rotation and gave the Royals 64.0 innings of 4.64 ERA in 13 starts. Heading into Spring Training, Montgomery is all but a sure lock to secure a spot in the rotation.

Montgomery was a former top prospect (ranking #19 via mlb.com in 2011) in the Royals farm system that gained notoriety as the “best farm system in baseball” in 2011.  Montgomery was unable to find command of his arsenal as he climbed the Royals system and became an added piece in the James Shields and Wade Davis trade in the 2012 offseason.

Montgomery’s plus curveball and plus change-up are the main reasons he was considered a top pitching prospect in the Royals system. These off-speed offers have allowed him to grove out a niche as a long reliever in the major leagues for the Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs. These pitches also give the 30-year-old Montgomery a chance at being a serviceable starting pitcher for the Royals in 2020.

With the switch to full-time starter, Montgomery’s fastball clocked in at 91.7 mph average, which was a decrease from his average fastball velocity of 92.6 mph as a reliever. His fastball has some sinking/riding movement to it allowing him to maintain a groundball rate above 50%.

Montgomery gets into trouble when he misses his location with the fastball, which hampered his production in 2020 by inflating his HR/9 to 1.69 and hard-hit rate 47.8% with the Royals. Montgomery should see his HR/9 rate drop back to his career rate of 0.96 and his hard-hit rate should drop back to his career norms of just north of 30%.

It appears Montgomery will never be able to fulfill his once promising projection as a potential front-line starter, but he should be a consistent starter for the Royals in 2020. Montgomery is projected to pitch around 150 innings for the Royals in 2020 and he should be able to throw a few gems when his command is on point. He is still suspectable to a couple of rough starts when he doesn’t have his control and gets into trouble with walks.

The Royals need starters to bridge the gap until the promising pitching prospects in the minors are ready and Montgomery will fill that role for 2020. There is a good chance Montgomery is able to exceed his projections if he mixes in his hard slider/cutter, curveball, and change-up in with well located fastballs.

If Mike Montgomery harnesses his mechanics, he could become a trade piece at the trade deadline and possibly bring back prospect pieces for the future.