KC Royals: Four pitchers due for bounce back season in 2020

The KC Royals pitchers and catchers are officially reporting to Spring Training February 12th. With 30 pitchers suiting up for the Royals during Spring Training, here are the players that are due for a bounce back season in 2020.

The Kansas City Royals pitching staff was awful in 2019 contributing a 5.20 ERA (4.60 AL average) and 1.479 WHIP (1.348 AL average) en route to losing 103 games. The Royals have some exciting pitching prospect talent near ready for MLB action, but they desperately need several pitchers on the 40-man roster to step up and outperform their projections in 2020.

Whether it is health, refined mechanics, or pitching under control, the following pitchers present the best opportunity to outperform their 2019 production:

Danny Duffy (Starting Pitcher)

• 2019 stats – 4.34 ERA, 1.309 WHIP, 115 Ks, 46 BBs (8 HBP), with a 4.78 FIP in 130.2 innings
• 2020 Steamer projection – 4.73 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 159 Ks, 64 BBs (8 HBP), with a 4.86 FIP in 184.0 innings

Danny Duffy looked like he was an outstanding extension decision by Dayton Moore following back-to-back strong seasons in 2016 and 2017. Duffy’s extension following the 2017 season of 3.6 WAR gave the Royals the impression they were retaining a top of the rotation starter until 2022. Unfortunately, he has suffered from inconsistency and injury the past seasons.

Heading into the 2020 season, Duffy is coming off a strong finish with stellar performances in September and October in 2019. After coming back from a DL stint, Duffy pitched 30.1 innings of 2.37 ERA, 25 Ks, and 10 BBs holding hitters to a .185/.264/.287 slash line.

There’s a lot to like in a fully healthy and competitive Duffy heading into 2020. His fastball velocity isn’t what it used to be when he was dialing it up to 97 mph in 2017, but he has refined his style to take advantage of generating weak contact with well located pitches. Having his battery mate back in Salvador Perez will increase his value as well.

Duffy has plus value with his fastball, slider, and change-up offers. A return to plus value of his curveball will give Duffy another weapon in his arsenal. The command of the curveball has eluded Duffy in recent years and this may be due to injury. Having the big looper in his arsenal should help increase his swinging strike rate, increase his K/9, and allow Duffy to keep his hard-hit rate below 37%.

Duffy’s successful campaigns in 2016 and 2017 were possible by keeping his BB/9 rate at 2.10 (2016) and 2.52 (2017). If health is the key to consistent success for Duffy and his control, then a good statistical indicator for Duffy in 2020 will be if he’s able to keep his BB/9 around 3.0.

Danny Duffy has the competitiveness and ability to exceed his projections and pitch a full season of 4.25 ERA of 180+ innings. A strong season from Duffy could draw considerable trade interest at the trade deadline with his looming last contract year in 2021 approaching fast.