Ryan O’Hearn (First Base)
- 2019 stats – .195/.281/.369 with 28 extra base hits (14 home runs) worth -1.0 WAR (69 wRC+)
- 2019 AAA stats – .295/.383/.597 with 20 extra base hits (9 home runs) with 130 wRC+
- 2020 Steamer projection – .235/.314/.435 with 37 extra base hits (17 home runs) worth 0.2 WAR (94 wRC+)
New manager Mike Matheny believes in a rebound season from Ryan O’Hearn, but his offensive numbers in 2019 were ugly to say the least. O’Hearn is another Royals player who has dedicated himself to his offseason training program and is expected to show up to Spring Training in fantastic shape.
“He came out and met with me and Dozier and we had a great conversation. How cool was it for him coming out to meet us like that?" Ryan O'Hearn was wowed by new Royals manager Mike Matheny's belief in him already and can't wait to prove his worth: https://t.co/lLPWJ6qOH0 via @MLB
— Jeffrey Flanagan (@FlannyMLB) January 3, 2020
O’Hearn’s hard hit profile should have resulted in more success in 2019, but when you look at his batted ball profile, you see he his groundball percentage was at 46.3%. This groundball percentage isn’t abnormal for O’Hearn career numbers in the minors, but is a substantial difference from his successful campaign in 2018 where he only hit 34.6% groundballs.
O’Hearn’s BABIP of .230 suggests he suffered from an extended streak of bad luck in 2019. He started to find some sustained success during the last 28 days of the season hitting .245/.281/.547 with eight extra base hits (four home runs).
If O’Hearn is able to tweak his approach and find his 2018 fly ball rate (46.2%) and line-drive rate (19.2%), then he will experience a breakout performance in 2020. He flashed impressive power and plate discipline in 2018 and he is capable of hitting above .260 with an OBP of .350 and 20+ home runs.