Kansas City Royals: Projecting positional player stats for 2020 season

The 2019 Kansas City Royals scored 691 runs and hit 162 home runs en route to losing 103 games. What do the statistical projections for the 2020 tell us about how successful the Royals will be?

Using the Steamers Projections on fangraphs.com, the Kansas City Royals project to score 756 runs and hit a franchise record 195 home runs during the 2020 season. The Royals haven’t scored more than 756 runs since the 2006 season and have only hit more than 190 home runs once in their franchise history (2017).

If Royals position players are able sustain their health and build on their offensive breakouts in 2019, then the 2020 Royals may enjoy an offensive renaissance.

Here is a breakdown by position of the projections and expectations for each position based on the Steamer Projections at fangraphs.com and what each player is capable of.

Catcher

• Salvador Perez (2020 Steamer projection) – .252/.291/.465 with 54 extra base hits (27 home runs) – 1.4 WAR

Before missing all of the 2019 season recovering from “Tommy John” surgery to repair his UCL in his throwing arm, Salvador Perez averaged more than 20 home runs per season with a slash line of .266/.297/.442, hitting 27 home runs in back-to-back season in 2017 and 2018.

Entering his age 30 season, the questions about Salvy’s arm are to be put to the test during spring training. A return to his defensive form where he committed zero errors and threw out 48.1% of would be base stealers in 2018 (Gold Glove winner in the AL in five out of the last seven seasons) will add to his overall value.

Perez is projected to play in 130 games for the Royals in 2020 and if he plays in that many games, he should be able to reach at least 20 home runs with his power. Having Perez back behind the dish will turn the catcher position, which was a void for the Royals offensively into a league average position with plus power.

• Meibrys Viloria (2020 Steamer projection) – .241/.297/.350 with 5 extra base hits (1 home run) – 0.0 WAR
• Cam Gallagher (2020 Steamer projection) – .249/.310/.371 with 7 extra base hits (2 home runs) – 0.5 WAR

The Steamer projections have Viloria (21 games) and Gallagher (27 games) contributing mostly in backup roles for the 2020 season. Both backups are respectable defensively with Viloria having the stronger arm (41% caught stealing in 2019) and Gallagher having the more advanced bat.

Gallagher is likely the to secure the backup role for the first half of the 2020. Viloria hadn’t played a game above A+ until 2019 and requires a little more seasoning in the minors to start the year. Both Viloria and Gallagher project to hit above .240/.310/.390 in the long run with Viloria having the potential to be a strong candidate to take over the starting catcher role after Salvador Perez leaves.

If Viloria can improve his receiving skills, he has the potential to be a Gold Glove caliber catcher in the future. Viloria has also impressed in the minors with his plate discipline, contact ability, and power potential. A future slash line of .260/.320/.410 with ten home runs for Viloria at catcher isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.