How Kansas City Chiefs can beat Green Bay Packers without Mahomes

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football, and they do so with lowered expectations.

Everyone now knows that Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes won’t be playing this Sunday after he suffered a dislocated kneecap on Thursday Night Football. The good news is Mahomes is considered week to week, and could return as early as next week against the Minnesota Vikings. The bad news is that a 6-1 Green Bay Packer team is in town, and the Chiefs are early underdogs at home.

So just how can the Chiefs win this game? We discussed it briefly this week on the KC Kingdom Podcast (which I will post links to below), but the topic got me thinking on just what would need to happen for the Chiefs to pull of an upset against the Packers.

A few variables need to align, but a win for the Chiefs isn’t exactly out of the question. It all starts with the defense, though, and if they can build off their suffocating performance against a hapless Denver offense.

To be blunt, the defense needs to be dominate or the Chiefs will lose. They will have no shot if this turns into a shootout. Aaron Rodgers is coming off his best performance of the season, having thrown for 429 yards and five touchdowns against the Oakland Raiders. That is phenomenal, but hasn’t actually been the norm for Rodgers this season.

This was Rodgers’ second game this season where he threw for over 400 yards, but the other five games for Rodgers all saw him throw for less than 290 yards. There will be chances for this Chiefs team to slow down the Packers offensive attack.

Davante Adams may not be ready to suit up after missing the last three games with turf toe, and the rest of the Packers receivers leave a lot to be desired. If the Kansas City Chiefs defensive unit can suffocate Rodgers even half as much as they did Joe Flacco last week, limiting Green Bay even a little could turn the tide in this contest.

The bigger concern is that the Packers may finally have a real defense. That is bad news considering the Chiefs are going to be trotting at journeyman Matt Moore at quarterback.

So what can the offense do to move the ball and score points against the Packers? The simple answer is to get the ball to the playmakers. This is going to have to be one of Andy Reid‘s best gamemplans offensively in years.

Utilizing the speed of Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman, the Chiefs need to get these weapons in space. That is not a secret, and Green Bay will be trying to take those opportunities away. That is why Big Red needs to go mad scientist and find creative ways to take advantage of the defenses.

Look for the Chiefs to utilize screens, crossing routes, pick plays, jet sweeps, tap passes and a whole bunch of misdirection to try and accomplish this goal. That will keep the game in front of Matt Moore, meaning it will be not asking him to do too much. Guys like Tyreek Hill are a threat to take it to house at any time. He will have to be special this Sunday to upset the Packers.

Speaking of special, the last element I can see coming together for a Chiefs win is special teams. Dave Toub is widely seen as one of, if not the, best special teams coaches in the league. Thus far in 2019, however, that unit has struggled. It is currently ranked 19th by the football outsiders. That needs to change this Sunday.

Field position will absolutely be key. If the return unit can set up the Chiefs in short fields, it will take stress of an offense missing its most important piece. Likewise, the kicking game being able to pin the Packers deep and making them drive farther will be crucial in this game.

Another thing the special teams unit can do is steal points for the offense. Seventeen points won’t be enough to beat Green Bay, but 24 might be. If the Kansas City Chiefs can return a kick to the house, that will be even less points Andy Reid has to manufacture with Matt Moore at quarterback.

I know all of this is easier said than done, and most of it is obvious. Playmakers in space, returned kicks, dominate defensive performances, etc. Of course we want all those to happen on a weekly basis. The point is that we can overcome not having those contributions with a Mahomes led offense.

This week, the Chiefs will need to be fundamentally sound and ultra prepared to have a shot at beating Green Bay. It wouldn’t hurt if Kansas City could cut down on its penalties as well. The Chiefs are currently 21st in penalties, averaging around penalties per game. We might even get lucky and catch the Packers on a down week.

Great teams can play poorly, as evidenced by the 13-0 Packers coming into Arrowhead to take on a 5-8 Chiefs squad in 2011 and losing by a score of 19-14. That Packers team was more talented than this one, and that Chiefs team was coached by Romeo Crennel and quarterbacked by Kyle Orton.

Matt Moore and Andy Reid should be able to exceed that duo. Let’s hope history repeats itself this Sunday, and an underdog Chiefs team can surprise the Packers in primetime.

Listen to “Episode Five: A True Underdog Story” on Spreaker.

• 0:35- KC Sports News and Notes
• 4:45- News and Notes from around the AFC West
• 11:11- Broncos vs Chiefs analysis
• 30:16 – A True Underdog Movie Trailer
• 31:09-Chiefs vs Packers predictions
• 53:35- Packers Chiefs Game Picks, Chiefs ideal Trade Targets