Kansas City Royals: Ryan O’Hearn must build on his successes for 2019

Ryan O’Hearn made his debut for the Kansas City Royals in 2018 with great success. Now, can he build on on that success in 2019?

When the Kansas City Royals called up first baseman Ryan O’Hearn in August of 2018, who knew he would turn in the numbers he did? In 44 games, he slashed an impressive .262/.353/.597/.950, clobbered 12 home runs, knocked in 30, and for good measure, hit ten doubles and two triples.

While the small sample of his major league Batting Average and On-Base Percentage weren’t far off his career minor league numbers (.268 and .349 respectively), the big surprise came in his power numbers.

In five minor league seasons, he hit a total 109 home runs in 2,349 at-bats, or one every 21.6 at-bats. His 12 dingers for the Royals came in 149 at-bats, or one every 12.4 at-bats. That is a significant improvement against better pitching.  It seems unlikely O’Hearn can sustain that pace over time.

Again, in a much smaller sample size, his Slugging Percentage for his stint in Kansas City was 120 points higher than his career mark in the minors. It seems a regression has to be in his future.

The question becomes how much regression. He has displayed power throughout his career. He’s hit at least 22 round trippers every year of his professional career since his first professional campaign in 2014. He also hit 47 doubles in 766 at-bats in AAA in 2017 and 2018, so there is power there, and he is still just 25.

According to Fangraphs, he has decent walk ratios throughout his minor league career, walking around or above ten percent at every level, including 11.8 percent last season for the Royals. Conversely, his strikeout ratios are also on the high side, coming in around 25-30 percent in the minors. This also held true in his brief time with the Royals, where he struck out 26.5 percent of the time.

This tells us he has a decent eye and is patient, but he will swing and miss at times. At his age, his power could still be developing so it isn’t unreasonable to expect he could hit approximately 25 homers a season, maybe even a few more now and then.

His Ground Ball Rate is a bit high (historically between 44 and 50 percent) for a power hitter and his Fly Ball Rates in the minors were inconsistent, ranging 30.4 percent in AA in 2017 to 47.2 percent in A+ ball in 2015. The good news is that in AAA last year his Fly Ball Rate was 44.6 percent and it was even better in the Majors at 46.2 percent.

Like some of his other numbers, his Home Runs to Fly Ball Ratio is kind of all over the place, that number was at or over a respectable 25 percent at a few stops and years in the minors. It was right at 25 percent in 2018 with the Royals.

This all boils down to the fact that while his power numbers in August and September were slightly inflated due to a small sample size, it is reasonable to think he can he can come close to duplicating them moving forward, although some inconsistency is likely.

Of course, this is the Major Leagues and pitchers will look for holes in his swing and approach and make adjustments, but O’Hearn certainly can make his own adjustments. Expect regression but maybe not as much as you might have thought initially. This is good news!

There is a good chance the Kansas City Royals have found a solid, if unspectacular, first baseman who could be a cheap power source for them for several seasons. It is a little ironic (or is it just coincidence) that O’Hearn earned a .8 Wins Above Replacement in just about a quarter of a season while the beloved, but departed, Eric Hosmer’s WAR for the Padres was a paltry minus .1 in 157 games.

Ryan O’Hearn’s 2018 performance was a pleasant surprise for the Kansas City Royals. He must build on those successes moving into 2019 and beyond, and if he is able to, he could end up being a key piece for the Royals as their rebuilding process continues.