The KC Royals don’t have many holes to fill, but there are a few spots in the lineup that could go a few different directions.
The KC Royals already have several spots that will likely look the same as last season. In reality there are probably four spots in the lineup that don’t even require thought as to who will fill them.
Ned Yost has worked his lineup magic over the last two seasons and has done so very consistently. When he finds a lineup that works, he’s not going to tinker with it. Ned Yost used the fewest variations in his lineups of any manager in 2015. He’s one of the least meddling coaches in baseball and his team has responded well to it.
He’s not the kind of coach that will use a pitcher for one out if he can avoid it. He doesn’t like to pull pitchers and he likes sending pitchers out to clean innings. So far his formula seems to have worked. He trusts his players to do their jobs, and he doesn’t try and fix something that isn’t broken.
What seems like a non-meddlesome approach, may actually be just the opposite of that. Ned Yost has everything so scripted that most Royals’ fans can rattle off the lineup two weeks ahead of schedule. Baseball is supposed to last nine innings. Yost has little time for that so he’s shortened it to six innings. Everyone knows the outline. If the Royals lead in six innings, they win.
So what does the story look like this season? There’s no more Ben Zobrist to start pop-fly rallies. There’s no more Alex Rios to bury our faces in our hands at either. Most of the core is back, but where will they bat and who will fill the holes left by Zobrist and Rios?
Let’s look at each spot in the lineup and determine who I think the best fit would be order one through nine. Ultimately, Ned Yost is going to make the best decision for the team, and at this point who can question his tactics?
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Lead-Off Hitter
I bet this one comes as a shock to everyone…not.
Ned Yost is going to stick with Escobar as the lead-off hitter and why shouldn’t he? The Royals were 82-49 when Alcides Escobar led off last season. No he’s not going to draw walks, but who cares?
Yes, his on-base percentage is not what you look for out of a typical lead-off hitter, but the Royals aren’t a typical team. ‘Esky’ Magic works, and there’s no reason to start trying to figure out how or why until it stops working.
He actually has better stats when he swings at the first pitch than he does when he works himself into a count.
Escobar can be maddening at times when he swings at the first pitch, but most of the time it works! He batted .364 last season when swinging at the first pitch, and an astounding .327 for his career.
He actually has better stats when he swings at the first pitch than he does when he works himself into a count. His ability to get on base when swinging at the first pitch may be why the Royals do so well when he leads off.
It may be surprising to know that Escobar actually saw 3.49 pitches per plate appearance last season. That’s not a lot, but it’s also not the worst in the league. It’s not even the worst on the team! Salvador Perez saw 3.33 pitches per plate appearance which was good for second fewest in the league.
Omar Infante also saw fewer pitches per plate appearance in 2015 than did Alcides Escobar. This is just the Royals standard operating procedure. They don’t strike out and to do that, they swing early and often.
Royals’ opening day lead-off hitter: Alcides Escobar
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Batting Second
There are three options in my mind that would fit in this role. First, I should state that this is all based on what I think, or maybe hope, will happen in Spring Training.
Alex Gordon makes sense in this role. He’s not a big power hitter, but can hit home runs from time to time. He doesn’t have a lot of at bats in the second spot in the lineup, but does hit well in his career in this position. With just over 100 at-bats, he has a slash line of .349/.425/.538. It’s his best slash line from anywhere in the lineup.
Mike Moustakas is another candidate to hit in the two-hole. He exploded out of the second spot in 2015 showing that he had finally learned how to hit to all fields. He opened the season with an opposite field home run, the first of his career, and 105 of his hits were either up the middle or to the opposite side. He also doesn’t strike out a ton and walks a fair amount for a Royals’ player.
Christian Colon is the other candidate to fill this spot in my mind. This is contingent first on him being named a starter over Omar Infante. Colon is a pesky hitter. He is good at making contact, has the bat skills to move the runner over if need be, can hit to all fields, and is fairly patient at the plate. He doesn’t swing at a lot of bad pitches, and the more attempts he gets the better he is going to become.
While all of these players are good options, I see Alex Gordon as the number two hitter for the Royals. I really like Colon in this spot, but Gordon hasn’t hit well historically out of the sixth spot and is probably making too much money to fall to the eighth spot. Aside from that, seeing Alex Gordon with more at-bats isn’t a bad thing.
Royals’ opening day second hitter: Alex Gordon
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The Three-Hole
The number three spot in the lineup belongs to Lorenzo Cain. Cain found his way into the number three spot late in 2014 and hasn’t left that role since.
He’ll occasionally bat second if something like an injury or day off comes up, but otherwise Cain is going to be hitting third.
Cain isn’t what most would classify as a number three hitter, but we already know the Royals don’t rely on massive power to win their games. While they don’t need Cain to hit for a lot of power, he still hit 16 home runs last season, which was a career high.
It also helps when you can score from first base on a single, but that’s just normal Royals’ base running at this point.
Home runs aren’t the only statistic in which Cain set a career mark. He also set career highs in hits, doubles, triples, walks, batting average, and steals. Okay, so he tied his career high in steals, but give the guy a break.
He also managed to strike out ten less times than he did in 2014 and made over 100 more plate appearances. His ability to get on base and turn singles into doubles, either on the hit or via stolen base, compliments the next two hitters nicely.
It also helps when you can score from first base on a single, but that’s just normal Royals’ base running at this point.
Royals’ opening day third hitter: Lorenzo Cain
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Clean-Up Hitter
Ned Yost isn’t likely to change up anything at this spot in the order or the next spot in the order for that matter.
Eric Hosmer is the perfect clean-up hitter. No, he isn’t going to mash 35 to 40 home runs but he is going to do what he does best. He is going to hit when there are runners on base and drive in runs.
Eric Hosmer had two hits during the playoffs in 2015 when there were no runners on. When there was a runner on base, Hosmer hit .333 with 17 RBIs.
With a good hitter in front of him and a good hitter behind him, he is going to see good pitches to hit.
Hosmer is going to hit better than .067 during the 2016 season when there aren’t runners on base, I hope, but he’s proven to be a commodity when there are runners in scoring position. When that runner is Lorenzo Cain, scoring position is first base.
Eric Hosmer probably wouldn’t hit in the fourth spot for many other teams. The Royals don’t employ a strategy that requires he hits home runs. They need Eric Hosmer to “keep the line moving”.
With a good hitter in front of him and a good hitter behind him, he is going to see good pitches to hit. When he gets his arms extended he has home run power.
I think this is going to be a breakout year for Hosmer. I think he makes the jump from good to elite in 2016. That’s a lot to ask from the guy that just won a World Series, but he has all the tools to be a superstar.
Royals’ opening day Clean-Up hitter: Eric Hosmer
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The Fifth Hitter
Ned Yost has made this piece very easy to write with his non-meddling tendencies. As mentioned previously, that’s not a bad thing. Don’t fix what isn’t broken!
When Butler left in 2014, there was a lot of mixed emotions about his departure.
Kendrys Morales was a revelation for the Royals. The Royals designated hitter hit 15 home runs and 28 doubles while grounding into 26 double plays in 2015. Oh wait…Those were Billy Butler’s numbers with the A’s.
When Butler left in 2014, there was a lot of mixed emotions about his departure. It proved to be a great move by Dayton Moore and the Royals as their real designated hitter played much better.
Morales was given a shot at redemption after a freak accident nearly ended his career. After breaking his leg on a walk-off celebration he was never quite the same player.
In 2015, Morales clubbed 22 home runs and 41 doubles. He also drove in over 100 runs and batter .290 on the season. He didn’t have a big role in the World Series, but did put the proverbial ‘nail in the coffin’ against the Astros.
Royals’ opening day fifth hitter: Kendrys Morales
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The Sixth Hitter
While Christian Colon was a good fit in the number two spot, I don’t think he would be a good fit in a prime RBI slot in the lineup.
Unlike Colon, Moustakas would be a good fit here. Moustakas gives the Royals three lefties in a row that can hit for power against a right-handed pitcher. It also gives Ned Yost the Left-Right-Left order that he likes when facing a lefty.
He only needed 142 at-bats for those 11 long balls compared to 346 at-bats for the ten he hit out of the second spot.
Moustakas hit very well out of the sixth spot last season for the Royals. His batting average was slightly better in the sixth spot than it was in the second spot.
He also hit 11 home runs out of the six-hole than he did following the lead-off man. He only needed 142 at-bats for those 11 long balls compared to 346 at-bats for the ten he hit out of the second spot. His walk rate also went up in that time, but so did his strikeout rate.
Moustakas has proven that he is capable of hitting for average, for power, and can drive in the runs. He is perfect for the middle of the lineup if he doesn’t find his way back into the second spot. I think he or Gordon could both fit in either spot, but I like each of them in these roles slightly better.
Royals’ opening day sixth hitter: Mike Moustakas
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The Seventh Hitter
Salvador Perez is an anomaly. He’s just a hitter that’s hard to figure out.
For a catcher, you’d think he would have a better idea of what a strike and a ball look like, but he constantly swings at pitches out of the zone. If he wasn’t such a good ‘bad ball’ hitter, that may be a problem.
Where he tends to run into problems, is when he tries to pull the outside pitches. If I was pitching to Perez, first I’d have to be much better at pitching, but then I would throw him sliders down and away. He tends to roll his wrists over and pull a weak ground ball to short or third. (Except for when he pulls a playoff winning single down the line)
Perez would do well to get some extra time off this season if he wants to play for an extended period of time. Eventually the foul-tips and all of those innings will catch up with him.
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He also hits much better when his legs are well rested. He batted over .300 this season following a day off, whether scheduled or just for a day’s rest. While his bat and defense are hard to take out of the lineup, it’s worth the risk from time to time to gain the uptick in production that it causes.
When Perez has his legs under him, he’s a dangerous hitter with runners on base. He was one of the Royals’ best with runners in scoring position last season and even better with two outs. He batted .371 in that situation last season with 27 RBIs.
The seventh spot isn’t usually a prime RBI position, but for the ‘next man up’ Royals, it provides several opportunities.
Royals’ opening day seventh hitter: Salvador Perez
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Batting Eighth
This is what I would call the ‘bold prediction’ of the lineup. I think everyone kind of plans on Jarrod Dyson filling a hole in the outfield either as a regular or as a platoon player. I think most would have him pegged as the ninth hitter rather than the eighth.
I should also say that I think Dyson will platoon with someone. Whether it’s Paulo Orlando or someone else, Dyson won’t be the everyday starter and will likely sit when a lefty starts. But this piece is about the opening day lineup and I don’t see Steven Matz being named opening day starter for the Mets.
I like Dyson in the eight spot for a couple of reasons. He doesn’t hit well with only a .256 average against right-handed pitchers, but his on-base percentage is .313.
If Dyson can’t steal to get into scoring position, it’s a potential lost run. If Escobar has to wait to swing to let Dyson steal, his batting average suffers.
He draws walks fairly well and will get into scoring position if he can just get on base. He can also find his way on base with speed either from a bunt attempt or an infield single.
I don’t feel good about his ability to flip the lineup over and get back to the top of the order or drive in the runners ahead of him, but I do have faith in his ability to get on base.
His getting on base is where I try to explain the method to my madness:
If he were to bat in the ninth spot and make it on base, don’t forget about Escobar’s habit of swinging at the first pitch. Escobar’s strength negates Dyson’s and vice-versa. If Dyson can’t steal to get into scoring position, it’s a potential lost run. If Escobar has to wait to swing to let Dyson steal, his batting average suffers.
Royals’ opening day eighth hitter: Jarrod Dyson
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Bottom Of The Order
If you haven’t figured out who I’m pulling for in the second base competition by now, I’d be surprised. I think Christian Colon has a good shot at earning a starting spot out of camp, even if it’s wishful thinking.
I like Colon in the ninth spot for a lot of the same reasons I like Dyson in the eight hole.
Last time Dyson was on base and Colon hit good things happened
Colon is a more patient hitter than Escobar seeing almost 4 pitches per at-bat compared to Esky’s 3.49. His patience will allow Dyson to get into scoring position and his ability to make solid contact gives Dyson a shot to score. (Last time Dyson was on base and Colon hit good things happened)
Colon’s ability to draw out an at bat is also good because it can run up the starting pitcher’s pitch count before the lineup turns over.
His .361 career on-base percentage is over a very small sample-size, but if he can continue at that rate he can turn the lineup over and keep the line moving.
Royals’ opening day ninth hitter: Christian Colon
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No matter what lineup Royals skipper Ned Yost runs out there on opening day, you should be confident in his decisions.
Yost has proven that he is capable of putting together a winning team. What he’s been able to do is nothing short of remarkable. He’s ability to let his players play, created a team chemistry that is the envy of major league baseball.
Put altogether, my proposed lineup for 2016 looks like this:
- Alcides Escobar
- Alex Gordon
- Lorenzo Cain
- Eric Hosmer
- Kendrys Morales
- Mike Moustakas
- Salvador Perez
- Jarrod Dyson
- Christian Colon
There are still a lot of unknowns. All of these predictions, if you can call them that, are based on everyone leaving Arizona in full health.
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There are also questions as to which ‘fringe’ prospects might make the jump to the opening day roster. If Brett Eibner, Jose Martinez, or Reymond Fuentes have phenomenal camps and make the squad, anything could happen.
Jose Martinez and Reymond Fuentes with their low strikeout rates may play well in the two hole, while Brett Eibner may flourish in the seventh or eighth spot or higher due to his power potential.
All I really know at this point, is I’m ready for Spring Training to start and for the pieces to start to fall into place.
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What do you think Royals’ fans? What are your predictions for opening day lineups? Would Dyson crack the lineup? Do any of the prospects make an immediate impact? Let’s discuss in the comments section below.