Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants: In-Depth World Series Breakdown

Oct 2, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Norichika Aoki (23) catches a fly hit ball hit by Los Angeles Angels second baseman

(not pictured) under Kansas City Royals center fielder

(6) during the sixth inning in game one of the 2014 American League divisional series at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Royals Defense vs. San Francisco Giants Defense

The Royals enjoy a significant edge in defense over the Giants both according to advanced defensive metrics, and the eye test from their recent playoff performance.

Kansas City’s outfield defense is simply otherworldly, and their infield is solid as well. In fact, the Royals made the Orioles—the team with the 2nd-rated defense by most metrics—look pedestrian by comparison.

The Giants aren’t nearly as good as the Orioles.

Most pundits think the Royals field an above-average defender at every position.

In fact, according to fangraphs.com’s DEF (fielding runs above average plus an adjustment for the positional importance of each fielder) the Royals led MLB by a wide margin with a 74.8 rating, while the Giants were a distant 16th with a slightly below-average -1.4 rating.

If you don’t like that metric, by UZR (ultimate zone rating) the Royals again rank no. 1 overall at 61.1 while the Giants move up one place to 15th with a 2.9 team ranking. Apparently, not only are the Royals the best in baseball at saving runs, they also gain an extra boost from having strong defenders in key positions.

If we restrict the analysis to outfield defense, the Royals get an outrageous 59.8 runs saved over average (out of 61.1) from their outfield, while the Giants check in at -7.8 (19th). These facts suggest the Royals infield is only slightly above average, while their outfield is ridiculous. According to fangraphs.com, the next closest outfield is Baltimore’s at a whopping 25 5 runs behind KC.

However, these numbers also suggest the Giants get 10.7 runs of positive value from their infield, while Kansas City only gets 1.3 runs. This difference is important in that Kansas City hits the 6th highest ground ball rate in MLB, hence the gap between the defenses might not show up as much as one might think.

However, if the Royals DO manage to hit a ball into the gap or corner in either spacious Kauffman Stadium or roomy AT&T park, they have the speed to make the Giants pay for their pedestrian outfield defense.

October 6, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; MLB umpire

ion (20) hands a baseball to San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey (28, right) during game three of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game against the Washington Nationals at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

However, the Giants do have one large advantage that doesn’t show up in defensive metrics. Most pitch framing measurements show Giants C Buster Posey as a guy that steals strikes for his pitchers. We saw this play out in the NLCS where Cardinal hitters complained that the Giants were getting strike calls that they weren’t, a fact borne out by pitch f/x data.

According to Stat Corner, Buster Posey ranks 6th in MLB, saving 17.7 runs (Runs average against). Salvador Perez is WAY down the list at -10.6 RAA. Now, this is a different measure than fangraphs.com’s UZR, so we can’t really correlate them, but the difference seems significant.