Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants: In-Depth World Series Breakdown
By John Viril
Oct 15, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey (28) hits an RBI single during the sixth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in game four of the 2014 NLCS playoff baseball game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco Giants Offense vs. Royals Starting Pitching
Sarris’ fangraphs.com article indicates that the Giants seem well suited to match up with Kansas City’s pitchers. Not only do the Giants hit fastballs well (which the KC staff loves), the Giants also hit the curve very well—and KC pitchers threw the 6th most curves of any staff during the regular season.
Again, however, this approach doesn’t mean the Giants will necessarily hit the fastballs the Kansas City staff throws. In particular, announced game 2 starter for Kansas City Yordano Ventura tosses the highest-velocity average fastball of any starer in MLB. ‘
There’s a huge difference between “liking” fastballs, and an exceptional fastball like Ventura’s. Ventura can dial up the heater over 100mph.
Aside from Ventura, the Royals are likely to start James Shields, Jason Vargas, and Jeremy Guthrie. Ventura and Shields are slightly above league average at giving up ground balls, while Guthrie and Vargas tend to be fly ball pitchers. Meanwhile, Giants hitters were no. 8 in MLB baseball in FB%.
Basically, Giants hitters play right into the strengths of Kansas City’s weaker starters in Vargas in Guthrie, in that they hit fly balls. That should play well for Vargas and Guthrie in both Kauffman Stadium and Pac Bell park in San Francisco, which both have large outfields that suppress home runs. Further, Kansas City’s outstanding outfield defense can run down most balls hit in the air.
It gets worse for the Giants.
As a team, they had trouble with both the cutter and changeup. Their pitch value (runs above average against a specific pitch) was -10.5 for the cutter (2nd worst in the N.L.) and -20.5 vs. the changeup (worst in the N.L.). Kansas City ace James Shields throws both of those pitches VERY well, which might explain his complete game shutout against the Giants earlier this season.
The Giants are also good contact team, ranking 11th in the N.L. in strikeouts. They, too, will put the ball in play. The Giants, however, have decent power. They hit 132 home runs during the regular season, which ranked 7th in the National League.
Speed is unlikely to be a factor for the Giants. S.F. only stole 56 bases during the season, which was the fewest in the N.L. However, the Giants are no slouch at manufacturing runs. Their win probability added from bunting ranked 7th in MLB.