Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants: In-Depth World Series Breakdown

Oct 14, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder

drives in the tying run on a fielder

Kansas City Royals Offense vs. Giants Starting Pitching

One of the more interesting articles analyzing this World Series came from Fangraphs.com’s Eno Sarris who broke down each hitter’s weighted runs created (wRC+, a sabermetric stat intended to measure a player’s offensive value in runs normalized for opponent quality and park effects) against specific pitches.

Sarris pointed out that the Royals struggled against breaking balls, while liking fastballs, while the Giants pitchers largely relied on their breaking pitches to succeed. On the surface, this matchup seems to favor the Giants

However, this approach seems a bit general to me. Hitters don’t face an “aggregate” of pitches. They face individuals.

The Giants are likely to throw Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong at the Royals.

The Royals hit Giants ace Bumgarner fairly well in their August matchup, plating 4 runs (3 earned) against him in 8 innings to hang a loss on him. That’s not really too surprising when you realize that Bumgarner’s best pitch is his fastball, which plays into the hands of KC’s lineup of fastball hitters.

However, lefty Bumgarner could nullify KC’s lefty-hitting duo of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, who have combined for 6 post-season home runs in 2014. Alex Gordon also hits left handed, but has a nearly even platoon split this season.

Peavy, Hudson, and Vogelsong are all veteran pitchers over 33.  None of them are particularly hard throwers at this stage of their careers. They mostly rely on breaking pitches, which Royals hitters struggle to hit.

On the other hand, Kansas City stole 153 bases this season (no. 1 in MLB) and all three of these pitchers had trouble preventing steals—despite having Buster Posey behind the plate. Kansas City’s big hope against these 3 veterans is that their speedy baserunners (if they can get on base) could distract S.F’s pitchers.

Peavy has not done well in 83.1 innings against the Royals with a 4.97 ERA over his career (he pitched for KC division rival Chicago White Sox). Peavy, however, has enjoyed something of a return to dominance in S.F. Perhaps he’s added the wrinkle that might make his historical stats vs. Kansas City obsolete.

The Kansas City offense is rightfully known for “small ball”. Fangraphs.com’s Jeff Sullivan posted a recent study which showed Kansas City hitters increased their win probability through bunting more than any team in the league. Add this ability to Kansas City’s MLB-leading 153 stolen bases along with their no. 2 58.8% rate scoring runners from 3rd base with less than 2 outs, and you have the best team in the league at manufacturing runs.

Kansas City’s speed could deter too many curveballs or sliders, and instead cause Peavy, Hudson, and Vogelsong to use cutters as a strikeout pitch.

Expect the Royals to put the ball in play. Royals hitters had the fewest strikeouts in MLB as a team, and the only Giant pitcher with a high K rate is Bumgarner.