Fantasy Football: How to Win Your League With Waiver Claims

Aug 9, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Andrew Hawkins (16) against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

2) OPPORTUNITY IS EVERYTHING

Its not enough that an unknown guy puts up a big day. Every week produces one-game-wonders that are useless fantasy performers over the course of the season. Now, when looking for the “breakout player”, you’re going to run into a lot of these types. What you need to avoid are the guys with the gaudy stats that have NO HOPE of becoming that fantasy producer you’re looking for.

The key is opportunity.

Sometimes a star will go down with a one-game injury and his sub will put up big numbers in his absence. Such a player is a BAD prospect when it comes to putting up big numbers this season, BECAUSE THE HORSE WILL BE BACK NEXT WEEK.stri

Who cares if Adrian Peterson‘s sub puts up big numbers? If Peterson returns the next week, that guy is destined to go straight back to obscurity.

The classic example is how sometimes people would put in claims for Michael Turner back in the days when he was the caddy for LaDanian Tomlinson in San DIego. If you were looking for a handcuff, having Turner on your roster made sense. But, if you wanted a new fantasy horse, you were barking up the wrong tree because, no matter how talented Turner might have been, he was always going to be 2nd fiddle to a healthy Tomlinson.

The corollary that goes with this rule is that: INJURY EQUALS OPPORTUNITY. Every week a fantasy producer suffers either a lesser, or more serious injury. Assessing that injury’s extent is a key to identifying breakout players.

Opportunity might be more important than big numbers. If a team has a big hole at a position, ANY guy that puts up solid early numbers is likely to see a lot of balls. Think Cleveland Browns. In a post-Josh Gordon world, the Browns are looking for someone to step up as a no. 1 WR. A guy with opportunity, and mere “solid” one-game numbers, is a better candidate than the guy who scores 4 touchdowns but is destined to return to the bench.

Opportunity might be more important than big numbers. If a team has a big hole at a position, ANY guy that puts up solid early numbers is likely to see a lot of balls.

One perfect example of such “fools gold” should be familiar to Chiefs fans. In 2004, backup running back Derrick Blaylock scored 4 TD vs. the Falcons as part of a historic, 8 rushing TD performance by Kansas City. Some FF fools knocked themselves over to claim Derrick Blaylock, when he was playing behind Priest freak’n Holmes. This was also a Chiefs team with former no. 1 pick Larry Johnson in Dick Vermeil’s doghouse.

Needless to say, Derrick Blaylock never became a useful fantasy football producer.