Draft Odds: A Chiefs Only Mock Draft

Feb 22, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas City Chiefs general manager John Dorsey speaks at a press conference during the 2013 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Note: Every Wednesday night from now until draft day KC Kingdom will put odds on various Kansas City Chiefs draft questions, including what they will do with the top overall pick.

The NFL Draft begins tomorrow and all of the speculation about what will happen will turn into interpretation of what did happen, which is far more fun to discuss. As of now, the Chiefs have eight draft picks to work with from Thursday thru Saturday, with five of them coming on Saturday.

What happens with Branden Albert and whether or not the Chiefs can trade down from number one overall will likely be determined in the next 24 hours, but until then we’ll pick based on what we know right now.

CHIEFS SELECT LUKE JOECKEL WITH THE NUMBER ONE PICK: 51%

It is either Eric Fisher or Luke Joeckel at number one for the Chiefs, and who they choose to go with may depend upon whether Branden Albert is still on the team by the time the Chiefs are on the clock. Based on reports from Jason La Canfora the Chiefs will draft Fisher if Albert is on the team, but if Albert is traded then it looks like Joeckel will be the pick.

I’m giving Joeckel the edge because I think there is a slightly better chance that Albert gets traded as opposed to him staying in Kansas City. I’m not a fan of draft a tackle number one overall, especially when that tackle is not of Joe Thomas‘ stature, and would prefer the Chiefs select someone like Dion Jordan, who is an excellent pass rusher, if they are forced to pick at number one. Alas, it doesn’t look like that is going to happen.

Feb 25, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Georgia Southern defensive back J.J. Wilcox jumps to stretch his legs before running the 40 yard dash during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS SELECT J.J. WILCOX WITH 63RD OVERALL PICK: 15%

Kansas City needs added depth in the secondary, especially at safety where Kendrick Lewis has proven to be a yearly injury concern. Wilcox, who attend Georgia Southern, may be one of the more underrated prospects in the draft because of the depth secondary options in the draft and because he went to a small school. But Wilcox can play and has the tools to be a very good safety in the NFL.

One issue with Wilcox is that he is very raw at the safety position, having moved from receiver, to slotback, to safety during his college career. The safety move didn’t come until his senior year which means there is very little tape on him. We do know that he has good hands and has the natural ability to make plays on the ball. His ability to read offenses and make smart decisions will be impaired by his lack of experience. The good news is that Kansas City doesn’t need him to start and can take the time to develop him behind Eric Berry and Lewis.

Jan 3, 2013; Glendale, AZ, USA; Kansas State Wildcats receiver Chris Harper (3) is defended by Oregon Ducks cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (14) in the 2013 Fiesta Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS SELECT CHRIS HARPER WITH 96TH OVERALL PICK: 15%

I may or may not have a slight man crush on Chris Harper who would be an outstanding selection for the Chiefs in the third round.

Harper has the rare size/speed combination, running a 4.55 40-yard dash even though he weighed in a 229 pounds. He’s 6-1, has a near 10-inch hands that are very strong, and is a tough guy to bring down after the catch. The kid is loaded with potential not only because of his tools but because he has only played receiver for two seasons.

Harper can run you over or run by you which should balance well with Kansas City’s other treats like Donnie Avery, Dexter McCluster, and Devon Wylie who are all speed-based receivers. Harper also has the potential to develop into a very solid second receiver who would have the flexibility to move inside and outside. The Chiefs have been looking for a compliment for Dwayne Bowe for several seasons and Harper could easily be the guy.

Feb 24, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Tyler Bray throws a pass during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS SELECT TYLER BRAY WITH 99TH OVERALL PICK: 10%

The 99th overall pick is the second pick of the fourth round which would mean Tyler Bray would have to go undrafted in the first two days of the draft. What is the likelihood of that happening? Probably minimal. But there are several mock drafts out there that would have Bray available at this pick. If that is the case, this would be the time to jump on a quarterback.

Bray has the physical tools to be an excellent NFL quarterback: He has great size at 6-6, 232 pounds; Owns maybe the best arm in the draft, which is graded at an elite level; Is good in the pocket and can move around to make throws under pressure. The problem is last year was a disaster for Tennessee and many attribute his success to the two excellent receivers he had at his disposal in Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter.

Still, the tools are there for him to be a very good starting quarterback in the NFL if he receives the proper coaching to develop the mentality of a NFL starting quarterback. With Andy Reid at the helm, Bray should get that coaching to develop into an intriguing trade piece in the future or be the next starting quarterback for the Chiefs.

Oct 27, 2012; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Georgia Bulldogs defensive lineman Kwame Geathers (99) tackles Florida Gators running back Mike Gillislee (23) during the first half at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS SELECT KWAME GEATHERS WITH THE 134TH OVERALL PICK: 3%

This admittedly, is a reach. A big, big reach. But it is not as big as Geathers who is 6-5, 342 pounds and plays nose tackle.

Geathers did not start at Georgia because John Jenkins was starting in front of him, but Gathers did see plenty of action in his time at Georgia, appearing in all 14 games and making 40 tackles with one sack.

The intriguing thing about Geathers is both his upside and his bloodlines. His brother is Cincinnati Bengals defensive lineman Robert Geathers, and another brother, Clifton Geathers, played for the Indianapolis Colts. Geather’s father and uncle also played in the NFL, with his uncle James playing his college ball at Wichita State.

His decision to forgo playing another year at Georgia as the full-time starter will hurt his draft stock but it doesn’t mean he isn’t a very talented (AND HUGE) defensive lineman who could be a big steal for a team willing to go out on a limb for him. He may be a rotational guy at the beginning but if he can plug the middle on passing downs then that would allow Dontari Poe to move to the outside and provide pressure from the end, something the Chiefs currently do not have.

Nov 23, 2012; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks running back Knile Davis (7) rushes past LSU Tigers corner back Jalen Mills (28) at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. LSU defeated Arkansas 20-13. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS SELECT KNILE DAVIS WITH THE 170TH OVERALL PICK: 3%

Injuries are a concern for Knile Davis but with Jamaal Charles in as the starting running back for the Chiefs that shouldn’t deter John Dorsey from selecting him.

Kniles, who attended Arkansas, destroyed the combine, running a 4.34 40-yard dash and 31 reps in the bench press. His is strong, athletic, fast, and runs with a power running style. Again, he is injury prone but he won’t be asked to carry the load in Kansas City.

Many will point to his lack of performance last season as a reason to be skeptical of Kniles, but most everything at Arkansas was bad last season. Coaching may have had a lot to do with Kniles performance and if he can get into a better environment and be burdened with  a light workload then the Chiefs may have the “thunder” to Charles “lightning.”

November 17, 2012; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Denard Robinson (16) runs the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the third quarter at Michigan Stadium. Michigan won 42-17. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS SELECT DENARD ROBINSON WITH THE 205TH OVERALL PICK: 1%

Kansas City is looking to improve their return game and with the speed, athleticism, and positional flexibility Dernard Robinson brings to the table it would be hard to pass on him if he is available at this pick.

Robinson is listed as a wide receiver, but he played mostly quarterback for Michigan the last four years. He could easily fill the role Dexter McCluster has been filling as a sometimes wide receiver, sometimes running back, sometime kick and punt returner but has the size and and build to be less injury prone. At the combine he was measured at 5-10, 199 pounds and ran a 4.43 40-yard dash. Robinson could be the playmaker for the Chiefs that they thought they were getting in McCluster. If he is available here, the Chiefs should take him.

CHIEFS SELECT P.J. LONERGAN WITH THE 207TH OVERALL PICK: 1%

As we learned last season having a true backup center would be a nice thing to have just incase someone, say Rodney Hudson, were to break a leg or something.

Lonergan was a three-year starter at LSU and has good size and toughness for the position. He needs to get stronger and more technically sound. He’s not a future longterm starter but he can provide what the Chiefs are looking for as a backup.

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Previous Draft Odds

Draft Odds: If Albert to Miami, Then What?

Draft Odds: No. 1 Pick Up in the Air

Draft Odds: Welker to Denver Adds Pressure to Chiefs Secondary

Draft Odds: What Should KC do with Pseudo Second Round Pick?

Draft Odds: Three for One

Draft Odds: What if the Chiefs Trade Down?