Draft Odds: If Albert to Miami, Then What?
By Ben Nielsen
Note: Every Wednesday night from now until draft day KC Kingdom will put odds on various Kansas City Chiefs draft questions, including what they will do with the top overall pick.
Over the past week we’ve heard rumors of a possible trade by the Miami Dolphins for the Kansas City Chiefs first overall draft pick. A deal would involve the Chiefs getting the Dolphins first round pick, one of their two second round picks, and potentially a third pick. The likelihood of this trade going down would appear to be minimal. But what these discussions may do is prompt another trade:
Branden Albert to Miami for a second round pick.
Yesterday, ESPN’s Bill Williamson wrote that he could see a deal being done where Miami would send one of their two second round picks to the Chiefs for Albert. Miami holds the 10th and 22nd picks of the second round, so the debate would be over which pick the Chiefs would receive.
Given that the Chiefs in no way have to trade Albert or the first round pick, and that Miami couldn’t get a better short-term answer at left tackle than Albert in the draft, free agency, or in a trade with someone else, I think the Chiefs would have the leverage over the Dolphins here if a deal were to be made, thus giving the Chiefs the 10th overall pick in the second round.
Should the Chiefs end up with that second round pick who they should draft would become the next question. We would know for certain either Eric Fisher or Luke Joeckel would go to the Chiefs at number one, so who would the Chiefs take 42nd overall? Here, we’ll figure out the odds.
Dec. 31, 2012; El Paso, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver
Robert Woods(2) is tackled by members of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets defense during the second half during the Sun Bowl at Sun Bowl Stadium. The Yellow jackets beat the Trojans 21-7. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
CHIEFS DRAFT ROBERT WOODS: 25%
Kansas City absolutely needs a number two receiver opposite of Dwayne Bowe, and if Jonathan Baldwin doesn’t start showing sign of being that guy this season then the Chiefs lack any potential at the position on the roster to fill the void. Even if Baldwin does blossom into an excellent receiver, modern football almost requires that a team have three or four good wide receivers to put on the field at any given time. The way Philadelphia and Green Bay has built their teams only echo this thought.
Robert Woods could be the guy who helps solve the Chiefs wide receiver problems whether it is to find a number two receiver or to add depth to the receiving corpse. Woods was very productive at USC and has the upside of a potential number one receiver. He can get better with his consistency and improve his strength but the tools are there for him to be a successful wide receiver even if he does not have elite speed (runs a 4.51 40).
Additionally, as I’ve said in the space many, many times: John Dorsey and Andy Reid love to take wide receivers high and they’ve had success doing it. Woods could be the next guy to add to that list.
Jan 1, 2013; Jacksonville FL, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive back
Johnthan Banks(13) returns a punt in the second quarter of their Gator Bowl game against the Northwestern Wildcats at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports
CHIEFS DRAFT JOHNTHAN BANKS: 25%
We said this after the Denver Broncos added Wes Welker at the beginning of free agency and we’ll say it again: The Chiefs need as many defensive secondary options as possible. They’ve done an excellent job adding Dunta Robinson and Sean Smith to the fold to compliment Branden Flowers and Eric Berry, but they still need to add another defensive back or two to get the depth they really need.
Johnthan Banks could be that guy. He has great size at 6-2, 185 pounds, but does lack elite speed. This shouldn’t matter, because his production on the field and his raw skills say he is one of the top five corners in what is a corner-heavy draft. He received the Jim Thorpe Award as the nations best defensive back last season and had 15 career interceptions at Mississippi State.
Assuming he can add some bulk and improve his fundamentals he could develop into an excellent playmaking corner for the Chiefs down the road while giving then valuable snaps now.
CHIEFS DRAFT ERIC REID: 20%
If the Chiefs don’t go corner, they may go safety. Eric Reid would likely be the best available safety at this point in the draft and he would certainly be an excellent pick. He has the size, athleticism, and intelligence to play the position well assuming he becomes more disciplined and is smarter about when he takes risks on the field.
Some Chiefs fans may not like this pick because he is from LSU, but Reid would be a very solid option to rotate with Kendrick Lewis next to Eric Berry in the secondary.
CHIEFS DRAFT KEVIN MINTER: 20%
Another LSU Tiger, Kevin Minter may be the best inside linebacker in the draft. While the Chiefs’ strength on defense is their linebacking corpse, the do lack a solid answer to who will start next to Derrick Johnson inside. Further, after the big three of Johnson, Tamba Hali, and Justin Houston, the Chiefs have virtually no depth at the position.
If Winter fails to win a starting job, he would at the very least provide excellent depth inside in his rookie season. He does have elite athleticism but he is very tough and plays the run and tackles very well. He may not be a playmaker but he would be a very solid starter in the Chiefs scheme assuming he can improve his pass coverage skills.
Dec 24, 2012; Honolulu, HI, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs defensive end
Margus Hunt(92) tackles Fresno State Bulldogs running back
Robbie Rouse(8) causing a fumble during the second quarter of the Hawaii Bowl at Aloha Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marco Garcia-USA TODAY Sports
CHIEFS DRAFT MARGUS HUNT: 10%
Here is the wildcard.
Margus Hunt may end up being the best 3-4 pass rushing defensive end in this draft, which is something the Chiefs desperately need. Hunt, who is 6-8, 277 pounds, recorded 16.5 sacks (eight last season) and 28 tackles for loss (11.5 last season) in his career at SMU, even though he arrived at the school to throw duscus for the school. He is very raw because of his late start in the game, but his physical tools and production are excellent.
The problem is Hunt will likely be draft somewhere between 30th and 40th overall, which means the Chiefs would have to trade up to select him. Would the Chiefs be willing to do that?
Again, it is hard to overstate how important it is for the Chiefs to find a pass rush from their defensive line and how much it would improve the quality of play from Hali and Houston. It would be worth spending an extra pick to trade up to draft Hunt but the odds are likely against it. Hopefully the Chiefs will get lucky and he will fall to them at 42…if the Chiefs are drafting at 42.
As always with draft projections “if” is applied to everything. Kansas City may not trade Albert OR their top overall pick, leaving them with a long wait until the 63rd overall pick. But I do think the Chiefs will make some kind of a deal, and if they can get one of these five players they’ll be in excellent shape heading into the third round.
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Previous Draft Odds:
Draft Odds: No. 1 Pick Up in the Air
Draft Odds: Welker to Denver Adds Pressure to Chiefs Secondary
Draft Odds: What Should KC do with Pseudo Second Round Pick?