Draft Odds: What if the Chiefs Trade Down?

Note: Every Wednesday night from now until draft day KC Kingdom will put odds on various Kansas City Chiefs draft questions, including what they will do with the top overall pick.

We are fifteen days away from the 2013 NFL Draft and we still have no clue what the Chiefs are going to do with the number one overall pick. We shouldn’t be too surprised with this since there was not an “Andrew Luck” in this draft or a game-changing prospect like Jadeveon Clowney.

^^^Yeah, I wish the Chiefs could draft that guy. ^^^

Alas, the definitive best player available has not made himself present in this draft which has led most people to believe the Chiefs will go safe and draft one of the two best offensive tackles available to them in the draft. This is only reinforced in Todd McShay’s latest mock draft where two of his three scenarios involve the Chiefs drafting a left tackle. The third scenario? Trade the pick.

While I still believe the Chiefs could easily go defense with their first overall pick in the draft should they decide to not trade Branden Albert, this does pose an interesting question for the Chiefs:

What happens if the Chiefs do not end up drafting number one overall?

Finding a trade partner is the key. If there is no definitive player for the Chiefs to draft number one overall then there is likely to player anyone else desperately wants at number one overall either. So Kansas City is in search of a team who may want the top overall pick to ensure they get their man. The player teams may looking to draft would be Geno Smith, the only quarterback in the draft with a first round grade and is currently being mocked as high as sixth to the Cleveland Browns. While most mock draft do not have the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders, or Philadelphia Eagles drafting a quarterback, it would not be surprising is quarterback was on their radars. The Detroit Lions are the only team in the top five with a franchise quarterback but have such a need at offensive line that it is unlikely they would trade down and miss out on Eric Fisher or Luke Joeckel.

All of this means that if a team like the Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, or New York Jets want the best quarterback available or if Cleveland wants to insure Smith falls to them, then the Chiefs are likely their best trade option.

If the Chiefs were 100% ensured to trade the pick, here are the odds of which team would trade for the pick and who the Chiefs would draft.

Oct 27, 2012; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide offensive lineman

(65) lines up to block during the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Bryant Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS TRADE THE NUMBER ONE PICK TO BUFFALO: 50% Chance

If there is going to be a trade for the number one overall pick Buffalo is probably the team who is going to make that trade. The Bills desperately need a quarterback, and even though Smith is not a great prospect in comparison to some of the other quarterbacks to come out of the draft in the last few years, he is the best option the Bills have going forward. If more and more buzz builds around Cleveland taking Smith with the sixth overall pick then expect Buffalo to make the jump necessary to ensure they have a viable quarterback for the next few seasons. Let’s face it, Geno Smith is a better option than Kevin Kolb or Tarvaris Jackson.

This would mean the Chiefs would have the eighth overall pick in the draft which would keep them in the neighborhood of Lane Johnson, Chance Warmack, and Dee Milliner. Because of the depth at cornerback in this draft, the Chiefs would pick Warmack here.

If Branden Albert is still here then he will have signed some kind of extension with the Chiefs either before the draft or before training camp. Kansas City has huge needs in the interior line and Warmack would solve many of them. A report surfaced earlier in the week that the Chiefs were trying to lure Ryan Lilja out of retirement. If the Chiefs were comfortable with their interior lineman situation this report would not exist.

CHIEFS TRADE THE NUMBER ONE PICK TO ARIZONA: 25% Chance

Yes, Arizona just traded for Carson Palmer but to expect to Palmer to be a long-term solution is ridiculous. Smith would be better served with a year or two to develop behind a veteran quarterback and would give Arizona a solution at quarterback once Palmer’s time is done. The chances of this trade happening are very small but they are better than almost any other team trading up with the Chiefs.

Kansas City would be picking seventh in this scenario, one pick ahead of the Bills, which means the situation wouldn’t change much with who the Chiefs would draft, Chance Warmack would still be the pick. There is a chance Fisher or Joeckel could drop to this spot but I imagine both would still be gone.

CHIEFS TRADE THE NUMBER ONE PICK TO CLEVELAND: 20% Chance

Cleveland is a bit of a wild card in this situation. New Browns GM Michael Lombardi is from the Bill Belichick “school of value” so selecting the most valuable player at number six would likely trump the idea of trading up for Smith. On the other hand, Cleveland has nothing at the quarterback position and Lombardi knows his time in Cleveland won’t last long if he cannot find a solution to the quarterback problem the Browns have. Smith is the best quarterback available and the number one overall pick is probably the cheapest it will be in a long time in terms of a trade. Lombardi can insure he gets the best quarterback available at a relatively cheap price if he feels convinced Smith won’t be there at number six overall.

Then again he could just sit at number six or trade down and collect more picks. This is what makes Cleveland so hard to gauge.

Cleveland has the sixth overall pick which could put the Chiefs in a position where they could flip picks with Philadelphia in order to draft either Joeckel or Fisher. It is assumed one of Fisher or Joeckel will go in the top three and if that is the case then the other will likely go to Detroit at number five. If the top four picks don’t see Joeckel or Fisher taken then the Chiefs could still get one of the two best tackles in the draft at number six depending on who Detroit takes with their pick. So the pick would be Luke Joeckel or Eric Fisher but would be a matter of either having to trade up or stay.

Oct 17, 2011; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets cornerback

(24) scores on a 100 yard touchdown during the first quarter against Miami Dolphins wide receiver

(82) at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS TRADE THE NUMBER ONE PICK TO NEW YORK JETS: 3% Chance

The scenario here would be what kind of deal could the Chiefs make for Darrelle Revis. Revis will not be a Jet beyond the 2013 season, but the chances of them landing compensation for the cornerback is quickly dwindling as they cannot put together a deal for a high draft pick. The Chiefs could make a play for him using the number one pick but they would not be gaining the extra picks they are looking for by trading down.

Instead they would be getting the best cornerback in football (potentially) and have a killer threesome of cornerbacks in Revis, Branden Flowers, and Sean Smith. If the Chiefs are going to beat Denver then they will need all of the secondary help they can get. Revis could go a long way towards solving that problem.

A deal would probably involve their first overall pick for Revis and a future first round pick. This would give New York two top ten picks for this year with the ability to trade down from their ninth overall pick to add more picks. Kansas City would gain a conditional future first or second rounder to help them make up for their lost picks from the Alex Smith trade and they would essentially be drafting one of the best players in football with their top overall pick in Revis. This would be a bold and difficult move but it would be one that could completely change the dynamics of the AFC West next season.

Feb 23, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; University of Missouri Tigers defensive lineman

speaks at a press conference during the 2013 NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Credit: Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS TRADE THE NUMBER ONE PICK TO ST. LOUIS: 1% Chance

St. Louis owns the number 16 and 22 picks in first round of the draft and would be trading them both to the Chiefs for the top pick in the draft in this scenario. The Rams are in need of offensive and defensive play makers, and while a need to leap up to the top overall pick doesn’t really exist they could land one of the better pass rushers in Dion Jordan or cornerbacks in Dee Milliner. The could also further fortify their offensive line with Joeckel or Fisher while giving themselves some insurance in case Jake Long‘s body gives out.

With those two picks the Chiefs would likely trade at least one of them for more picks later in the draft and use another one of them on a weapon. At 16 the Chiefs could select Kenny Vaccaro or Sheldon Richardson to improve their defense on passing downs or they could take someone like Tavon Austin or Cordarrelle Patterson to improve their wide receiver depth. Sheldon Richardson would likely be the pick given Andy Reid‘s affinity for taking defensive lineman and John Dorsey‘s liking for taking wide receivers in the second and third rounds.

CHIEFS TRADE THE NUMBER ONE PICK TO MINNESOTA: 1% Chance

Minnesota holds the 23rd and 25th overall picks in the draft and may choose to use them to jump up to number one overall. The question they have to ask themselves is if they can improve their front seven two picks in the 20’s or with one of the top players available in the draft such as Ezekiel Ansah, Dion Jordan, or Star Lotulelei? If they are looking for a top-end player then making a trade with the Chiefs may make more sense. And since Minnesota is taking some public relations hits for trading away Percy Harvin, they might make up some ground by massively improving their defensive front with one of the top players in the draft.

If this were to happen Kansas City would do as they would’ve done with a potential St. Louis trade by keeping one pick and trading the other. Alec Ogletree, D.J. Fluker, and Justin Pugh would be the players to watch with the 23rd overall pick. Ogletree would fill the inside linebacker vacancy quite well with his athleticism while Fluker and Pugh could fill either right tackle hole or the guard hole respectively.

CONCLUSION

If the Chiefs trade the number one overall pick they will not be getting the kind of return they would have received in years past. I still think the Chiefs will make a deal for more picks but it will come in the form of trading Albert which will lead to the selection of Joeckel or Fisher. I’d put the odds of the Chiefs actually trading the number one overall pick at 10% and that’s probably optimistic.

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Previous Draft Odds:

Draft Odds: Three for One

Draft Odds: What Should KC Do with Pseudo Second Round Pick

Draft Odds: Welker to Denver Adds Pressure To Chiefs Secondary

Draft Odds: Chiefs No. 1 Draft Pick Up in the Air