Draft Odds: Three for One

Note: Every Wednesday night from now until draft day KC Kingdom will put odds on various Kansas City Chiefs draft questions, including what they will do with the top overall pick.

And then there were three.

According to a report (tweet) from Russell Lande the Chiefs are down to just three choices for their number one overall pikc.

Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel are not surprising given all of the trade discussion and contract uncertainty of Branden Albert. Filling the left tackle spot will be a high priority in Albert is shipped off somewhere else.

Dion Jordon is the guy that may surprise people. The Oregon Duck outside linebacker will probably not be a favorite choice of Chiefs fans given he plays the same position as Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. But the more you think about it Jordan might be the right guy for the Chiefs at number one.

Here are the odds for Fisher, Joeckel, and Jordan should the Chiefs stay put at the number one overall selection.

July 17, 2012; Hoover, AL, USA; Texas A

CHIEFS DRAFT LUKE JOECKEL: 40% CHANCE

At this point the most surprising thing the Chiefs could do in the next three weeks is not make a trade for more draft picks. All the reports point to the Chiefs either moving down for more picks or trading Branden Albert for a few picks, but there hasn’t been a lot of talk of the Chiefs staying put at the top of the draft and holding onto Albert. The scenario more likely to produce a Joeckel draft pick is if Kansas City trades Albert.

Kansas City’s willingness to trade Albert says a lot about what they think about Donald Stephenson playing on the right side. This feeling leads one to believe John Dorsey wouldn’t feel the need to draft Joeckel if he still has Albert manning the left tackle position. If Albert is gone than any tie-breaker between Jordan and the left tackles would favor the tackles.

If Kansas City trades down the likelihood Joeckel is still available is lower than Fisher or Jordan, although Jordan is rising up many people’s boards quickly.

The verdict: If Kansas City still has the number one pick and Albert is not on the roster, Joeckel is the pick.

CHIEFS DRAFT ERIC FISHER: 20% CHANCE

The scenario that most favors Fisher is if the Chiefs trade down in the draft. This would assume a team like Philadelphia, Arizona, or Buffalo is trading up to select Geno Smith. In that case Joeckel would drop down in the draft along with Fisher. Fisher would most likely be the guy to fall to Kansas City at pick four, seven, or eight. The odds Jordan falls to seven or eight are minimal which increases the chances for Fisher. We also don’t know for sure if Kansas City favors Fisher over Joeckel so there is minimal chance Fisher is selected number one overall.

Sep 10, 2011; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks defensive end Dion Jordan (96) tackles Nevada Wolfpack running back Mike Ball (5) during the first half at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Z. Rider-USA TODAY Sports.

CHIEFS DRAFT DION JORDAN: 40% CHANCE

History favors Dorsey and Andy Reid taking a defensive player with their top pick. Five of Green Bay’s last seven first round picks have been defensive players, while four of the last six first round picks for Philadelphia have been defensive players. (Though it should be noted that three of the four non-defensive first round picks have been offensive linemen.)

Jordan makes a ton of sense for the Chiefs given the versatility he could bring with his athleticism and size. Remember, Tamba Hali isn’t getting any younger and the Chiefs will need an answer for his position should Hali decline faster than anticipated. Jordan also acts as the best pass-rushing defensive player in this draft which holds significant value no matter what position he plays.

Many will point to the Chiefs already having three Pro Bowl linebackers as a reason to pass on Jordan. But the Chiefs have no depth at the linebacker position and do not have an answer should either Justin Houston or Hali get hurt. Watch the first game of the season last year against Atlanta to see how not having a replacement for Hali hurt the pass rush for Kansas City.

Besides depth, another way Jordan would help Kansas City is his strong coverage skills. Hali’s skill set isn’t suited for pass coverage and neither his Houston’s. Bringing in Jordan on passing downs and moving Hali to defensive end (which he sometimes lines up as already) would give the Chiefs a formidable pass rush in addition to better coverage skills should they decide not to rush Jordan.

This probably cannot be stated enough, but I believe Dorsey when he says he will select the best player available. Jordan is the best defensive player available in this draft (if it isn’t Sharrif Floyd). The question now is whether or not Albert is on the roster by draft day.

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Previous Draft Odds

Draft Odds: Chiefs First Round Draft Pick Up in the Air

Draft Odds: Welker to Denver Adds Pressure on the Secondary

Draft Odds: What should KC do with “Second Round” pick?