Draft Odds: What Should KC Do With Pseudo Second Round Pick?

Note: Every Wednesday night from now until draft day KC Kingdom will put odds on various Kansas City Chiefs draft questions, including what they will do with the top overall pick.Did you know Kansas City has a second round pick?

While the Chiefs second pick in the draft is technically the top pick in the third round, a random set of circumstances has vaulted that pick to a late second rounder.

Two picks in this year’s second round have been forfeited by two teams for very different reasons. The most widely known is the New Orleans Saints relinquishing their second round pick as a punishment for the bounty scandal that cost head coach Sean Payton a full season. In addition to New Orleans, the Cleveland Browns spent their second round pick for this year in the supplemental draft last year, selecting former Baylor wide receiver Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft’s second round. Each of these picks essentially have disappeared into the netherworlds of the NFL draft, bumping every team up two slots starting with San Diego in the middle of the second round. Instead of the Chiefs having the 65 pick of the draft to start the third round Kansas City will actually have the 63rd selection, a pick that is generally found in the second round.

This also applies to their compensation pick in the third round. Instead of the pick being sandwiched between the third and fourth rounds like in years past, the pick will actually be a true third rounder as the 96th pick in the draft. The lost two draft picks by New Orleans and Cleveland means KC still has four picks in the top 100 selections of the draft this season.

While it ultimately may mean very little, it is still a fun little quirk to consider when viewing the Chiefs drafting position. Kansas City has a true second and third round pick and psychologically that sounds better than saying Kansas City does not have a second round pick – which is still technically true.

So with all the discussion about what the Chiefs will to with the top overall pick and what Branden Albert may command in a trade, I thought it would be a good idea to see what is Kansas City’s best choice with their late “second round” pick.

Oct 20, 2012; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive back Johnathan Banks (13) returns an interception during the game against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Davis Wade Stadium. Mississippi State Bulldogs defeated the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 45-3. Mandatory Credit: Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS SELECT A DEFENSIVE BACK: 40%

Someone is going to fall.

Defensive back is loaded this season in the draft, and this means a very good player is going to end up at the end of the “second round” for the Chiefs to select. Kansas City could use one more defensive back to complete their secondary, whether it be a safety or a corner.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Dunta Robinson play more of a safety position this season than corner, which means the Chiefs could use another corner to compete with Javier Arenas for the nickel spot. Kansas City lacks size at the position after Sean Smith and could use a bigger player like Jonathan Banks, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, or David Amerson to line up against taller receivers.

Then again, John Dorsey has been all about drafting the best available player, and the best available at that point in the draft might be a smaller player like Matt Elam or J.J. Wilcox.

Players to consider: Johnthan Banks, Blidi Wreh-Wilson, David Amerson, J.J. Wilcox, Matt Elam, Jordan Poyer

Jan 3, 2013; Glendale, AZ, USA; Kansas State Wildcats receiver

(3) is defended by Oregon Ducks cornerback

(14) in the 2013 Fiesta Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS SELECT A WIDE RECEIVER: 30%

Dorsey loves to use second and third round picks on wide receivers in his most recent drafts. Since 2005 he has used four second rounders and a third round pick on a receiver and he has had a great deal of success doing it. How about these names: Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and James Jones.

Terrence Murphy, who was selected in 2005, is the only bust of this group.

Kansas City needs more certainty at the wide receiver position behind Dwayne Bowe. Former first round pick Jonathan Baldwin has yet to develop, Dexter McCluster and Devin Wylie cannot stay on the field, and Donnie Avery is more of a third option than a second option. If Kansas City can find a second guy to play opposite of Bowe the Chiefs offense becomes significantly better.

This year’s class has some interesting names that may be available once the Chiefs pick comes around. Justin Hunter, Robert Woods, Terrance Williams,  and Josh Boyce could all be guys who may be around at the end of the second round. Woods is the most intriguing here because he has the speed that Andy Reid likes but also size element to go with it. In addition, his strengths as a receiver seem to fit what the Chiefs are built to do – shorter routs and then run after the catch – and he also brings the added dimension of being bigger than most speed receivers.

A sleeper here could be Kansas State’s Chris Harper. The offensive system at K-State hid him in some ways because of Colin Klein’s limitations as a quarterback, but don’t let the lack of numbers fool you about how good Harper could be. He strong, fast, and powerful, and exemplifies the idea of “run after catch” the Chiefs may be looking for in a receiver. In the right system he could end up being one of the NFL’s better wide receivers.

Players to consider: Robert Woods, Terrance Williams, Josh Boyce, Chris Harper.

Nov 24, 2012; Knoxville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback

(8) during the game against the Kentucky Wildcats at Neyland Stadium. Tennessee won by a score of 37 to 17. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS SELECT A QUARTERBACK: 25%

The Chiefs may go quarterback with their compensatory pick in the third round but if enough of a run on quarterbacks starts in the middle of the second round Kansas City might pull the trigger sooner.

As I have written before, the new Chiefs brass has a history of developing late round quarterbacks into something of value. Need and lack of depth at the position in this draft may force the Chiefs to take a quarterback early but there will be promise with whoever they take.

Kansas City was rumored to be in love with Tyler Wilson and the Senior Bowl and many have extolled the virtues of Tyler Bray’s raw talent. Both of those player should be available at this stage of the draft but where quarterbacks end up getting taken in the NFL draft doesn’t always make sense.

Bray is my choice if only because he reminds me of a weird Philip Rivers/Jay Cutler hybrid of a quarterback. If Bray had stayed another year in college and fixed a few things – particularly his mental approach – I think he would have been a top 10 player in the 2014 draft. His decision to leave early may be a steal for the Chiefs if they can fix his issues.

Players to Consider: Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson, EJ Manuel, Ryan Nassib

October 6, 2012; Gainesville FL, USA; LSU Tigers linebacker

(46) tackles Florida Gators quarterback

(6) during the second quarter at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

CHIEFS SELECT A LINEBACKER: 5%

The one starting position for the Chiefs yet to be filled on defense is the middle linebacker position left open by Jovan Belcher. While many have mocked a middle linebacker to the Chiefs early in the draft I don’t see it happening until later in the draft or even in undrafted free agency.

Remember, Belecher was an undrafted player coming out of Maine himself and filled the position pretty well for the Chiefs. There were certainly things about his game that could have been improved but the success and failure of the defense was hurt or improved by his being on the field. Kansas City can find a suitable replacement for him at a cheaper cost while filling a more pressing roster need with this pick in the draft.

This is, of course, unless one of the better middle linebackers fall to the Chiefs of course, which I doubt. Alec Ogletree and Manti Teo’o are locks to go in the first round at this points, leaving Kevin Minter, Kiko Alonso, Arthur Brown as the other viable linebackers to select.

Brown and Minter make the most sense for the Chiefs but neither are likely to be there when they pick.

Players to consider: Kevin Minter, Arthur Brown, and Kiko Alonso