Predicting the Royals' 2024 Rotation: Expect Big Improvement

The Royals had the third-worst team ERA in MLB last year (5.17), so massive improvements were necessary to field a competitive ballclub in 2024.

Well, J.J. Picollo has certainly made some improvements. Kansas City has been one of the most active teams in the offseason, whipping off trades and making huge signings.

It's an exciting time to be a Royals fan after years of mediocrity and that feels beautiful to say. Let's look at the Royals' projected rotation now that the dust is settling from our flurry of transactions.

Projected 2024 Royals' Rotation

1. Seth Lugo

Lugo will be the Royals' highest-paid pitcher this year, so it's logical that he'd get the nod on opening day.

The Royals signed Lugo to a three-year, $45 million deal after a phenomenal season with the San Diego Padres. He finished with a 3.57 ERA in 146.1 innings, striking out 140 batters while walking just 36.

For a rotation in need of reliable pitchers, Lugo provides a huge boost. He's got six pitches in his arsenal, though primarily throws a 4-seam fastball, curveball and sinker. Displaying elite control, Lugo ranked in the 83rd percentile in walk rate in 2023.

Lugo's off-speed pitches pair well with a strong Royals defense. Opponents hit just .206 off his sinker this year and I anticipate a beautiful marriage between these entities.

Perhaps most encouraging is Lugo's ability to eat innings. He threw at least six innings in 10 of his last 13 starts, alleviating pressure on the bullpen and making everyone's jobs a bit easier.

Welcome aboard Seth, we're excited to have you.

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2. Michael Wacha

Wacha may already be the best quote in the entire organization. He also comes over from the Padres and admittedly, has a more impressive resume than even Lugo does.

He'll make $1 million more per year than Lugo, though the shorter deal makes me give the nod to Lugo for opening day. That being said, these two former Padres feel interchangeable and I could see either one getting the nod.

Let's take a moment and recognize how great that is: the Royals have TWO quality opening day options! Wacha joined the organization in a stunning deal that proves Picollo wants to compete for a division title as soon as this year.

Over the last two years, Wacha posted a 25-6 record with an ERA right around 3.3. He's the most proven starter in the rotation, ranking in the 98th percentile in off-speed run value last season.

The fact that both Wacha and Lugo specialize in off-speed pitches shows you how much the Royals believe in their defense. A clear path is being forged: force weak contact and let the defense do its thing.

Our third starter is my personal favorite in the entire rotation, as you'll see on the next page.

3. Cole Ragans

The greatest trade of the 2023 season, by any time, landed the Royals a legitimate franchise cornerstone that suddenly will likely be the No. 3 starter at best. What a great offseason!

Ragans put together one of the best two-month stretches for any pitcher in Royals' history, compiling a 2.64 ERA with Kansas City while striking out 89 batters in 71.2 innings. He's got a ridiculous fastball, averaging 96.5 MPH with an opponent expected batting average of .193.

This guy is a bonafide stud.

We entered the postseason believing Ragans would be the Royals' ace, but now he's penciled in at the No. 3 spot.

No matter how you look at the offseason, that's an incredible victory for the organization. We have at least three starting pitchers fans can trust, and that's three more than we've had in recent years.

If this next guy develops, Kansas City may have one of the best starting rotations in the American League.

4. Brady Singer

The Royals' longest-tenured starter suddenly finds himself at the end of the rotation after a disappointing 2023, though he's still shown the promise that made the organization believe he was a front-line starter.

Singer had a 5.75 ERA after posting a 3.40 ERA in 2022, a huge drop-off from what looked like a potential breakout performance two years ago. Nonetheless, I'm willing to chalk last year up to a lost season due to outside factors and think Singer can find that ace potential again.

We know Singer's competitive fire runs deep and he's a bridge between the Royals of old and the Royals of new.

The former first-round pick has the stuff to be a reliable starter - can he find the magic without the pressure of leading a rotation?

5. Jordan Lyles

Lyles is starting out of pure necessity at this point, and he's far better suited to be the No. 5 guy instead of a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.

He had a 6-17 record with a 6.28 ERA last season but did eat up 177.2 innings. Given the limited depth in the bullpen, you could do worse for a last starter.

With a 22nd-percentile ranking in expected ERA, Lyles actually fared better by advanced metrics than he did on the field. It's reasonable to expect sublte improvement and provided the front rotation guys do their jobs, it won't matter if Lyles struggles.

This is a quality rotation by any metric. It represents a significant upgrade for Kansas City and should thrill Royals fans for the future.

Even if we have to sit through a Lyles start every five days, he should be better. If not, who cares? Everyone else will be.

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