The solution to Kansas City's wide receiver problem is already in house.
Rashee Rice has made a huge impact when he's been on the field and it's only a matter of time before he emerges as the Chiefs' No. 1 wide receiver. It's no secret the organization needs a receiver to step up, as that's been the team's biggest issue for the offense thus far.
Fear not, Chiefs fans. There are three stats that illustrate why the second-round rookie is destined for a breakout soon. Let's go through them here.
3 Stats Proving Rashee Rice's Breakout is Imminent
1. Targets Per Route Run
When he's on the field, Rice is involved at an elite level. Make no mistake, he's getting separation and demanding the ball at an absurd rate.
Rashee Rice's targets per route run is nuts. For reference, Tyreek is at 33%. (via @MBFantasyLife) pic.twitter.com/0ta8t5ieFX
— Adam Best (@Arrowhead_Adam) October 2, 2023
That number likely isn't sustainable, but it does show that Mahomes has enough trust in Rice to throw him the ball with regularity. Through four weeks, Rice has 19 targets though he's eclipsed at least five in three of the four contests.
He's farther along than Skyy Moore was at this time last year and I expect his snap count to rise as we progress through the season.
WR Leaders by Threat Rate
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 3, 2023
+ Per @FantasyPtsData
1. Davante Adams (40.7%)
2. AJ Brown (39.4%)
3. Rashee Rice (38.0%) 👀
4. Tyreek Hill (37.9%)
5. DeAndre Hopkins (37.0%)
6. Puka Nacua (35.%)
Threat Rate = Targets per aimed pass on snaps the player was actually on the field
In fact, I expect Rice to become Mahomes' No. 1 receiver by the end of the year. The "targets per route run" leaderboard is littered with elite receivers. It's a useful predictive stat that shows how much a player is involved in the offense. For a rookie like Rice, 32% is an exceptional number.
It's no coincidence that Rice led all receivers in targets in three of Kansas City's four games, but it's also not the only stat that shows his breakout is coming.
2. Percentage of Team Yards When On Field
This is a similar stat though a bit more telling. While Rice is drawing targets at an elite rate when on the field, he's also accounting for an absurd percentage of the Chiefs' receiving yards as well.
If a player's percentage of yards is higher than their percentage of targets, they're outproducing the involvement. Remember that Rice is drawing 32% of the targets when he's on the field and then look at this:
Rookie receiving check-in ⤵️
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 3, 2023
Percentage of their team's receiving yardage accounted for while on the field:
67% - Marvin Mims
48% - Rashee Rice
43% - Puka Nacua
33% - Jayden Reed
32% - Zay Flowers
28% - Tank Dell, Sam LaPorta
27% - Jalin Hyatt
24% - Josh Downs
22% - Bijan…
48%! This speaks not only to Rice's excellent production when targeted, but it also shows how much the rest of the Chiefs' pass catchers are struggling.
It's not sustainable for one player to account for half of your yardage, so there are obviously bigger problems at hand. That being said, Rice is not one of the issues. He's dropped a pass in every game, but we can live with the drops if he's producing at this kind of level.
His ability to get open in the middle of the field and break tackles is apparent every game. It looks like Brett Veach acquired a foundational offensive piece for the Chiefs and we'll see his involvement and production grow in the coming weeks.
Thus far, the Chiefs have played three good defenses. Rice caught five passes for 59 yards against the only poor one, the Bears, and that kind of production is what we should expect moving forward.
We entered the year thinking Skyy Moore would fill the JuJu Smith-Schuster role, but it's becoming clearer that Rice was who the organization had in mind. He's a natural fit, and this next stat shows how much he's impressing others across the league too.
3. Pro Football Focus Grade
Say what you will about Pro Football Focus, but their rankings and grades are still a valuable data point for evaluating players. They're not the end-all, be-all, but can certainly serve as a cherry on top when you have other information painting the same picture.
Folks, PFF thinks Rice is pretty darned good too. To drive the point home, they have him rated as one of the 15 best receivers in the entire NFL this year!
Seen some chatter re: the #Chiefs acquiring a WR at the trade deadline — but perhaps an answer is on their own team. Last week, we noted Trent McDuffie ranked 1 (@pff) among all NFL cornerbacks.
— Pete Sweeney (@pgsween) October 3, 2023
Who's tied for No. 14 among all NFL receivers?
Rashee Rice (T- Mike Evans) - 79.0
It's ironic Rice is tied with Mike Evans, the receiver Chiefs fans have most clamored for over this last month. Evans is an exceptional talent, but trading for him would require jettisoning off assets.
We already spent a second-round pick on Rice and he seems equipped to fill the same shoes. The eye test and stats test are both giving us the same answers: Rice is due for a massive breakout at some point this season.
If you want to bet on the Chiefs this week or even with a futures bet, DraftKings Sportsbook is rewarding new users who bet $5 or more with an INSTANT $200 in bonus bets! Just sign up here, deposit at least $10 and bet $5 or more on any Chiefs bet and you'll instantly receive $200 in bonus bets to use freely. Sign up now!