Fantasy Football Running Backs to Target – Number 7: Aaron Jones
There is really only one big category of projected change for Aaron Jones‘ stat lines this season – Most of his stats will likely be similar other than his touchdown total. He is definitely due for a touchdown regression.
There is no way that he finishes with 19 total touchdowns again this season. He could have a higher yardage total than last season, but there’s not much to back that on as last year was a career-high.
For his stat predictions, he will stay right around the same except having a four-touchdown regression, and honestly, that is being generous to Jones. He could very easily have a larger touchdown drop than that.
With the touchdown drop and leaving the rest of his stats alone, you can assume a decrease of roughly 24 fantasy points from last season’s total. This brings his new total in just above Cook’s predicted total at 266.3 fantasy points.
Despite the close predicted fantasy totals and the inevitable touchdown regression for Jones, he is a much safer pick than Cook. Don’t let the touchdown drop completely scare you away from Jones in 2020.
Fantasy Football Running Backs to Target – Number 6: Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry had a monster year last season and because of this steep increase in production from 2018 to 2019, it’s hard to see another big jump for Henry. He is going to get heavy usage in Tennessee this season though, so don’t be too worried about a big regression either.
Darrynton Evans was a player that I really liked during the draft though and he will get some work. I don’t know that it will effect Henry all that much though, but could cut into his yardage by a couple hundred yards and maybe robs a couple touchdowns from him.
Henry also could be a little more comfortable and potentially lose just a hair of his edge this season after receiving his new deal. He’s going to have a very good season, but because of those two factors I’m going to say he loses about 100 yards and a touchdown.
This puts him at 1,440 rush yards and 15 touchdowns in 2020. Assuming similar, very minimal receiving stats, that brings his fantasy points total at 269.6 good enough to put him just ahead of Jones.