Advertisement

Kansas City Royals: Crushing Fantasy Expectations

Mark Kanter
Mark Kanter

KCKingdom

Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez (13) – Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Seven of the nine Kansas City Royals offensive starters are currently owned in over 90% of standard ESPN fantasy baseball leagues. Once Alex Rios returns from the DL, that will make eight, and now with Omar Infante finally starting to hit, we could be looking at a fully owned squad in no time.

Five years ago, with the likes of Yuniesky Betancourt and a 34-year-old Jose Guillen hobbling around, there would’ve probably been just one guy consistently owned across leagues. With the quality of both the team as a whole and individual players increasing dramatically in the past three seasons, Royals hitters and pitchers now fill fantasy rosters across the nation. By and large, they’ve been crushing it so far this year.

Let’s take a look at how Royals players are panning out so far in fantasy compared to their expectations.

Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez is currently second among catchers on ESPN’s Player Rater, but that doesn’t mean last year’s fatigue still isn’t on everyone’s mind. After the All-Star break last year, Salvy slashed a putrid .229/.236/.360 in 253 ABs.

With an OBP seven points higher than his average, the catcher walked just three times in the second half of the season, a feat I must imagine could be mimicked by many of those reading this very post. The consensus was that Ned Yost had worn the kid out, having him catch in 146 games in the regular season (10 more than anyone else), followed by another 15 in the post-season.

After a shortened winter due to the Kansas City Royals’ playoff run, it was easy to be skeptical about which Salvy would emerge to start 2015. For a guy who could’ve been drafted after the first ten rounds (his ADP is 122 for standard ESPN leagues), I’d say owners must be fairly pleased at this point.

Honestly though, as good as the numbers look so far (after Tuesday’s game, he’s batting .333 with 13 RBIs), he still just has two walks, one of which was intentional. His .343 BABIP is unsustainable, and as the season continues we might see his plate discipline decline even more.

Right now he’s a top five fantasy catcher, but who can say what will happen in the second half? The one thing fantasy owners know is that Salvy will offer plenty of ABs and put the ball in play (Sal had just 85 Ks last year), but time will tell whether he can be trusted all year.

Next: The Moose Is Loose

Kansas City Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (8) – Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Moustakas

Everyone remembers Mike Moustakas’ postseason heroics, but few can forget his paltry .212 regular season average, which failed to make even the top 25 for qualifying third basemen. With such a horrendous campaign that included a stint in Omaha, it’s no surprise Moose went undrafted in fantasy leagues this spring.

Now though… Wow.

Everyone called Yost crazy when he said the sub-.250 career hitter would be taking over duties in the two-hole, a spot in the lineup traditionally reserved for someone who can put the ball in play and sacrifice when necessary (you know, a quality batter). Of course, we’re almost a month in, and Yost couldn’t wait to tell the sports world how right he was, according to Andy McCullough, the Royals beat writer of the Kansas City Star.

More from Kansas City Royals

It’s been repeatedly written about now, but what Moose has done is truly remarkable. He was the 10th most shifted player last year according to Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star. While Moustakas’ pull-heavy power swing crushed in high school and the minors, once the shift was employed, he looked much more like a “AAAA” hitter who didn’t quite know how to adjust.

His .346 average after Tuesday night’s game in Cleveland leads the Royals batters and puts him 9th in the AL (Cain is 10th) – at this point last year, his sub-.150 average was among the worst for every-day players.   In one season, this man jumped from the 10th percentile to the 90th and has become an entirely different kind of hitter.

Ironically, he actually had one more home run at this point last year, but when you’re hovering around the top of the ranks for your position in hits and runs, that’s a trade-off any fantasy owner is willing to make, especially for someone who was added to fantasy teams after the entire draft was over.

Next: Baseball’s Bad Boy

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Yordano Ventura (30) – Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Yordano Ventura

Ah, Mr. Yordano Ventura. What do we make out of him?

Through four starts (before the most recent game with Cleveland on Wednesday), his walk rate is down over 25% compared to last year, and his WHIP is an excellent 1.05. Ventura’s K/9 hasn’t changed, and although his ERA is over 4.00 (and his 4.37 FIP is 75th in the league), it’s a small sample size and mostly due to that rough outing against Oakland on April 18.

ESPN ranked him 43rd among starting pitchers going into the season, behind the struggling Mat Latos and Hisashi Iwakuma, and right ahead of unsexy names like Jose Quintana and Phil Hughes. Frankly, it was probably a little low, and Ventura deserved better as an ace in the making.

Forget all that though – what matters now is if he can mature and keep his emotions in check.

If teams consistently can get into Ventura’s dome and impact his performance, whether it means distracting him from being effective, or causing him to be ejected the second he make a mistake, then it’s going to be a long year.

I’m not concerned about a seven-game suspension (we have a slew of spot starters for that), but more about the long-term impact, and upcoming reaction from opponents to what may be perceived as an emotional weakness. I’m confident he can find a mentor in the veteran Edinson Volquez, and until further notice, he’s still the ace and should be treated accordingly in all fantasy formats, even if it feels like the whole world hates him, according to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post.

Next: Regression? Hardly.

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Edinson Volquez (36) – Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Edinson Volquez

It seemed like everyone was calling for Volquez’ regression this year, with his 3.04 ERA in 2014 backed by a low BABIP and stellar Pittsburgh defense. So far (pretty much) so good though.

With at least five strikeouts in each of his starts, a sub-1.00 WHIP, and a clan of good hitters behind him, the wins should follow.

We can be sure of two things – one, that the immense Spring Training trouble Volquez had in commanding his off-speed pitches is in the past (along with his pre-April ERA which hovered around the double digit mark); and two, that when he does have his command, he borders on un-hittable.

The problem has been consistency, and not just game to game, but inning to inning. On Sunday, Volquez put together five stellar innings before losing it in the sixth, yielding five runs (albeit four unearned) in the Royals’ loss to the White Sox.

With at least five strikeouts in each of his starts, a sub-1.00 WHIP, and a clan of good hitters behind him, the wins should follow. For a guy who was largely undrafted in standard ESPN leagues, Volquez is now owned on close to 90% of teams and has earned must-start status against almost every opponent’s lineup.

Next: Five-Tool Talent

Kansas City Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain (6) – Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Lorenzo Cain

For years, Lorenzo Cain was a promising piece of the Zack Greinke trade who just couldn’t stay healthy. The outfielder who didn’t play organized baseball until high school figured it out soon enough with the help of Olympic track coach AL Hobson.

A's slug their way past Kansas City, wins 6-4
A's slug their way past Kansas City, wins 6-4

White Cleat Beat

  • This pitcher could break an unenviable KC Royals record Kings of Kauffman
  • MLB Playoff Odds vs. Baseball Reference Playoff Odds: Who Has Betting Value? Betsided
  • Royals vs. Athletics prediction and odds for Monday, Aug. 21 (Battle for last place) Kings of Kauffman
  • KC Royals fans need to watch this surging prospect Kings of Kauffman
  • KC Royals News: Fireflies on fire, Brad Keller, and why a sweep would be good Kings of Kauffman

    • Cain has now emerged into a potential five-tool player (power’s a stretch, but there’s no reason he can’t be a consistent 15 HR/25 steal guy), and currently ranks in the top 20 in the AL in runs, hits, doubles, RBIs, stolen bases, average, and on-base percentage.

    Oh, and not that it matters for fantasy, but he’s also arguably the best center fielder in baseball.  So there’s that. With an average draft position over 200, this will be the last year Cain’s a steal for fantasy owners.

    Overview

    Overall, this year is much different than year’s past when it comes to the Kansas City Royals and fantasy baseball. Normally, not many Royals are in people’s lineups, or even on people’s teams. This year though, you’ll have to get in line if you want some of the best hitters and pitchers in Kansas City.

    It truly is a beautiful sight.

    Next: Omar Infante Joins the Party

    More from KC Kingdom

    Mark Kanter

    Mark Kanter

    Mark is a Kansas City native and five-year New York City resident who studied Creative Writing and Economics in upstate New York. His intense passion for baseball and the Royals began as a toddler after acquiring a large cardboard box of trading cards at a flea market in downtown KC. Since then, he hasn't looked back. Besides baseball, other interests include Seinfeld, food, the NYC music/comedy scene, and unfortunately, Colgate Raiders basketball.