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KC Royals: Baseball Prospectus Projects Just 72 Wins In 2015

By Joel Wagler

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The KC Royals may have come very close to being world champions in 2014, but Baseball Prospectus doesn’t think there will be a repeat performance in 2015.

Baseball Prospectus came out with their yearly projections earlier this week, and Royals fans better hope BP is way off the mark. Baseball Prospectus projected the Kansas City Royals to finish fourth in the American League Central, with a record of 72-90.

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BP projected the Detroit Tigers to win the division with a mere 82 wins. This seems to indicate they are not really high on the Tigers either, or any other AL Central team, and that there may be some wiggle room for wins.

The Royals lost James Shields (3.7 Wins Above Replacement), Nori Aoki (2.3 WAR), and Billy Butler (-.3 WAR). These three, who played key roles in the KC Royals winning 89 games last year, accounted for 5.7 Wins Above Replacement, according to Fangraphs.

The Royals have signed Kendrys Morales (-1.7 WAR), Alex Rios (.2 WAR), and Edinson Volquez (.7 WAR). The Royals also get back Luke Hochevar (1.2 WAR in 2013). That is a subtraction of .4 Wins Above Replacement.

That leaves a negative 5.3 WAR from the players subtracted from last year’s World Series squad, and the players added to this year’s edition. Still, that doesn’t explain the 17 game drop that BP is projecting.

The KC Royals, according to FanGraphs, had team WAR of 23.7 in 2014, tied for sixth in the majors, ironically enough, with the San Francisco Giants. Even allowing for a drop of 5.3, that would put the Royals at 18.4, if everyone can match their 2014 WAR. That would have been the 15th best number in 2014.

Where do they expect the Kansas City Royals to drop wins? What are the chances Wade Davis can match his 3.1 WAR as a set-up man? Can Alex Gordon (6.6), Lorenzo Cain (4.9), and Jarrod Dyson (3.1) match these numbers in 2015?

Gordon and Cain are decent offensive players, but all three built up strong WAR’s due to excellent defensive numbers. There is no reason to doubt those three can’t duplicate, or improve upon their defense.

Neither of the three put up huge numbers offensively, so they should be able to come close to matching or exceeding their contributions at the plate.

In what is becoming an annual event, everyone is hoping Eric Hosmer (.2) and Mike Moustakas (.9) can each finally reach their potential. Surely these two can exceed those barely above average numbers in 2015. Can they? That is a discussion for another day.

On offense, no other WAR’s stand out as an aberration. Alcides Escobar (3.4), Salvador Perez (3.3), and Omar Infante (.5) all have repeatable numbers. The Kansas City Royals are counting on Morales and Rios improving on bad seasons.

So what does this indicate? How about the bullpen. Davis (3.1), Greg Holland (2.3), and Kelvin Herrera (1.4) accounted for 6.8 Wins Above Replacement in 2014. This seems like it would be difficult to replicate, even if Luke Hochevar returns to his 2013 form. So, drop a couple of wins in this area.

That leaves the rotation. Again, none of the numbers look out of whack. Yordano Ventura (2.8), if he stays healthy, can match or exceed that number. Danny Duffy (2.2) could exceed his performance. Jason Vargas (2.6) and Jeremy Guthrie (1.5) have WAR’s that look doable again.

The Royals certainly hope Edinson Volquez can improve on his .7 number. They will need him to.

So why the huge drop in the wins for the Royals? You can see maybe a slight drop off with a few players, but conversely, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see improvement in several others.

It looks like Baseball Prospectus just doesn’t believe the Royals’ success last year was for real. The Royals finished last in the majors in home runs with only 95, and they finished last in walks with only 380. 

That particular feat had never been done by a playoff team. Maybe that is why BP thinks it was a fluke. As fans of the KC Royals, we want it not to be a fluke. We want that incredible run through the playoffs to be duplicated again.

These BP projections should at least warn us to be prepared for a drop-off in performance. They also tell something else though. Something more positive.

We know 82 games is not going to win the division. That means these projections are just that – educated guesses. The Royals very well could be the team that out performs these projections, and can make a run at 90 wins again.

If 82 wins DOES win the division, then you have to believe the Royals can make a solid run at that number.

Take these projections with a grain of salt.  Just a few days ago, Buster Olney of ESPN, wrote that the Royals were the fourth best team going into 2015. Now that may be drinking the Kool-Aid just a bit, but it does prove not everyone has the same opinion about this team.

The Royals could just as easily be the fourth best team in the majors as they can go 72-90. Keep that in mind as we head into spring training.

Next: Could Shields Still Return To KC

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