Royals Rumors: Could Matt Kemp be a Royals Trade Target?
By John Viril
Recent Royals rumors suggest that the Los Angeles Dodgers will certainly deal one of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford this winter. Could the Royals really pull off a deal to land slugger Matt Kemp?
Right now, the Dodgers have a logjam in the outfield between Kemp, Ethier, Crawford and Yasiel Puig at the major-league level and prospect Joc Pederson—who hit 33 home runs with 30 steals in AAA last season.
Something has to give.
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Yasiel Puig isn’t going anywhere. The young Cuban import has too much youth and too much talent for the Dodgers to let him go. He’s also the most favorably priced Dodger outfielder with $31.8 million remaining on his contract over the next 4 years. Ethier and Crawford are nice players, but the real prize for the Royals would be the 30-year old Kemp.
In short, Kemp is the middle-of-the-order power hitter that the Kansas City Royals need.
The problem, of course, is price. Kemp has $107 million remaining on his contract over the next 5 years. There’s no way the Royals will pay $21 million annual salaries through Kemp’s age 34 season.
However, the Dodgers can afford to eat more money than any team in baseball. Further, new team President Andrew Friedman has a history of working with the Royals front office in his prior job as general manager in Tampa Bay (anyone recall that little James Shields/Wil Myers deal?).
The only reason the Dodgers might be willing to deal Kemp is an injury history that led to Kemp only appearing in 179 games in 2012-13, and his sub-par 2013 season.
Kemp rode a strong 2nd half in 2014 to post an outstanding .287/.346/.506 triple slash for an on base plus slugging percentage (OPS) of .852 with 25 home runs and 89 RBI’s. Kemp also moved to right field, but has indicated he sees himself moving back to center in the future.
The Royals can use that injury history to demand that the Dodgers eat a significant amount of Kemp’s future salary. If, say, the Dodgers were to agree to assume $6 million per season to turn Kansas City’s obligation to Kemp into a 5 year, $77 million contract, we might just be on the outskirts of a do-able deal.
For such a trade to happen, Friedman will have to be looking for prospects to improve the long-term core of his team. He has needs at shortstop now that it appears as if the Dodgers will move on from Hanley Ramirez, and starting pitching depth behind their top 3 starters of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
In return for an impact bat like Kemp, the Dodgers are likely to demand Kansas City’s no. 1 prospect in SS Raul Mondesi along with at least one of Kansas City’s prized minor league arms such as Kyle Zimmerman, Sean Manaea, Miguel Almonte, and Brandon Finnegan. Royals general manager Dayton Moore would have to toss in a couple of lower level prospects to complete the deal.
That would be a steep price to pay, but the Royals will have 2 first round picks in the 2015 June draft to restock their system if James Shields moves on to another team.
The Royals would also have to be willing to accept the medical risk that comes with Kemp’s injury history.
That’s why I suspect a Kemp deal is nothing more than a nice daydream. I think the long-term risk is more than the Royals will be comfortable bearing.
Even so, the idea of a bat like Kemp in the middle of the Kansas City lineup is something that any Royals fan can’t easily ignore.