Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants: Game Four Preview

By John Viril | Oct 25, 2014

Oct 15, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Jason Vargas heads back to the dugout after being relieved in the sixth inning in game four of the 2014 ALCS playoff baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants will play game 4 of the World Series at AT&T Park in San Francisco Saturday night at 7:07 PM CST. The Royals lead the Series 2 games to 1.

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The biggest change for game 4 is, of course, the starting pitchers. Kansas City will send lefty Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71 ERA) to the mound against right-hander Ryan Vogelsong (8-13, 4.00 ERA) for the Giants.

Vargas is even a stronger fly-ball pitcher than Jeremy Guthrie, with a 61.7% fly ball rate. Expect a lot of balls hit in the air, which plays right into the strength of the Kansas City defense. Royals manager Ned Yost will again deploy his “Ultimate Defensive Outfield” of Jarrod Dyson in CF, Lorenzo Cain in RF, and 3-time gold glove winner Alex Gordon in LF. Again, regular RF Nori Aoki will go to the bench.

Thirty-one year old Jason Vargas is primarily a fastball, changeup pitcher, who throws an occasional (12%) curveball. Both his fastball and curve are below-average offerings, with his change as his out pitch. While Vargas is something of a soft-tosser, he rarely walks hitters, and eats a lot of innings. He can be very effective when he keeps the ball in the park, especially with Kansas City’s defense to run down the fly balls.

Oct 15, 2014; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Ryan Vogelsong (32) pitches during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in game four of the 2014 NLCS playoff baseball game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

He’s probably a good matchup against a Giants’ lineup that hits the ball in the air, and also struggles against changeups. The Giants have the lowest hit value against the changeup in the N.L. according to fangraphs.com’s pitchf/x data.

The Giants will counter with 37 year old Vogelsong, who is another veteran soft-tosser. Vogelsong is a fastball, sinker, curveball pitcher who will throw the occasional change. Vogelsong isn’t a particularly hard thrower, with an average fastball velocity that hovers around 91 mph, however he has thrown harder in the playoffs—averaging around 93 mph.

Vogelsong’s best pitch is his sinker, which makes him a tough match for the Royals. Kansas City hitters were the 2nd worst team in baseball against sinkers according to Fangraphs.com.

Here we have a case to two middle-tier starters who happen to have favorable performance metrics against their opponent’s hitting tendencies.

As for relievers, Kansas City’s Kelvin Herrera could be unavailable on Saturday after throwing 27 pitches on Friday and 32 pitches on Wednesday. If so, look for Yost to use Jason Frasor and Brandon Finnegan as his bridge to Wade Davis and Greg Holland.

For the Giants, Tim Lincecum warmed up on Friday and seems to be available to pitch on Saturday, despite leaving Wednesday’s game 2 with tightness in his back.

Kansas City will use the same lineup that worked in game 3, which means DH Billy Butler will again ride the bench. The Giants made two changes in their batting order with lefty Vargas on the mound. First, they replaced LF Travis Ishikawa with defensive wizard Juan Perez, who bats from the right side. Second, they moved right-handed hitting C Buster Posey from cleanup to no. 3, and moved lefty no. 3 hitter Hunter Pence to cleanup.

You can see the starting batting orders here.

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