The Kansas City Chiefs head to Indianapolis this weekend to face the Colts in one of two AFC Wild Card Weekend games. These teams met in week 16, as the Colts handed the Chiefs the biggest defeat of their season, 23-7.
The Chiefs have lost 6 consecutive playoff games, dating back to 1994; 3 of these games came against the Colts, with 1 being played at Lucas Oil Stadium. During this span of playoff games, the Chiefs are a disgusting 0-6 Against the Spread and Straight Up.
Throughout the 2013 season, the Chiefs are 11-5 Straight Up, and 9-7 Against the Spread. In their last 7 games, Kansas City is sitting at 2-5 SU, with one of those losses coming against the Colts. On the road, the Chiefs are an attractive 7-1 ATS, and are currently a +1 point underdog (Bovada) for this weekend. According to OddsShark, the Chiefs are ranked 12th on the NFL Power Rankings.
The Indianapolis Colts are an outstanding 12-2 SU, and 11-3 ATS when facing in the Chiefs in the last 24 years.
This season, Indy is 11-5 Straight Up, and 10-6 Against The Spread. In their last 6 home games, they are 5-1 ATS, and are presently listed as a -1 point favorite (Bovada) in their 2013 AFC Wild Card game. The Colts are listed 15th on OddsShark’s NFL Power Rankings.
If you are wanting to bet on the Over/Under on this game, (46 points according to Bovada), here are some stats you might want to know:
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-9 on the Over this year
- 5 of the last 6 Chiefs games have gone Over the set totals
- The past 5 meetings between these teams have been Under the set totals
- The Colts are 10-3 favoring the Under in playoff games since 2005
- In Indy’s last 5 games, 4 have been Under the set totals
- Math Models (OddsShark) have the Chiefs winning 28-24
After reviewing the stats listed above, and putting serious thought into what I would risk my money on, I came up with this; Chiefs Win SU, 31-24, which means they cover the spread, and go Over on the total for the game.
What are your predictions?