Opinion: Billy Butler Isn’t Going Anywhere

Mandatory Credit: Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not a Billy Butler hater. Really, I’m not. I’m just realistic.

Tuesday, Buster Olney tweeted that the Kansas City Royals were willing to trade their designated hitter, Billy Butler.

There is no reason to get fired up about this one way or another. Billy Butler isn’t going anywhere.

I just don’t think the Kansas City Royals will find a market for Butler that will bring back his equivalent in relative value. Relative value in relation to the Royals, that is.

Billy Butler, at this point, for better or worse, is the Royals’ best hitter. The problem is that he would be the third or fourth best hitter on many teams.  If teams could be assured they would get the 2012 version of Billy Butler, and not the 2013 version, then the Royals might find a market for him.

Butler, for all his positives, and there are many, has several warts, too. He is overweight and slow. He led the majors in hitting into double plays (28) for the second time in 2013, and he has to be lifted for a pinch runner late whenever he gets a hit in a close game.

He also hit a tremendous amount of ground balls. According to Fangraphs.com, Butler had the 4th highest ground ball rate in the American League at 53.1%. Most of the guys around him on this list are speed guys like Michael Bourn and Elvis Andrus (Eric Hosmer was 5th on this list at 52.7). Butler loses a number of hits each season because of his lack of speed. He hits the ball hard and in holes but fielders know they have all day to make the throw to first.

Butler’s fly ball rate is a paltry 26.4%. It’s hard to hit home runs, or even doubles, when you are only hitting a quarter of your batted balls into the air. To put up any kind of home run total, that rate needs to be over 40%. Who is going to want to pay for an everyday DH who has only averaged 17 home runs a year over his career.

It is also worrisome that he used to hit doubles, even though he wasn’t hitting home runs. From 2009-2011, Butler averaged 47 doubles a year. In 2012, that total dropped to 32, but he hit 29 home runs. In 2013, he rapped out only 27 doubles, and he knocked out just 15 home runs.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Butler will turn just 28 in April, so he is still a young man and should have plenty of productive seasons ahead of him. He is a good, not great hitter, and he his Kansas City’s most consistent run producer over the past several years.

He probably has more value to the Royals than he does to other teams. I just don’t know if the Royals can get back equal offensive value for him.

Kansas City’s trade partners are limited because he is mainly a DH. He can play first, and probably isn’t the worst glove in the major leagues, but he doesn’t hit for enough power for teams to overlook his defensive deficiencies. His DH status will cut the Royals’ trade partner in half. Throw out the AL Central teams just on principle, and the trade market is whittled down to just 10 teams.

New York, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Texas, Seattle, Oakland, and Los Angeles are all teams that could use an everyday DH. Oakland, Seattle, and Tampa Bay could all offer back young pitching but the $20 million Butler is owed over the next 2 seasons may be detrimental to these thrifty organizations.

I’m not sure he has enough power to entice the other teams to give up equal value.

If the Royals are to trade Butler, they would have to replace his offense. Jeff Zimmerman of royalsreview.com postulates that the Royals could replace Butler with George Kottaras against righties and a hodge podge of whomever against lefties to make up the difference, but I’m not buying that.

I suspect the more Kottaras plays, even if it is just against right handers, the more he will be exposed.

I understand the Royals need players who get on base, and that Kottaras had an OBP of .349 despite the fact he had only batted .180. Kottaras had 24 walks and 18 hits (half of which were for extra bases) in his 126 plate appearances.

Yes, teams need players who get on base but they also need players to drive players in who are already on base. If there is a runner in scoring position, a walk is not the same as a hit.

In the second half of the season, from July 10th on, Kottaras had 59 plate appearances. He batted .191 (better than the first half), had a .356 OBP (better than the first half), and 9 hits (the same as the first half), yet his slugging percentage was only .277 (.453 in the first half). He only had 1 double, 1 home run, and 1 RBI after July 10th.

Yes, getting on base is very important, and the Royals have ignored this for a long time, but you cannot replace Billy Butler with George Kottaras. Period. No matter who else the Royals might add to their team.

I just don’t see how the Royals can trade Butler and get equal value, to the Royals, even if they use some the money freed up to acquire a stud outfielder.With the influx of more television money this season, Kansas City should not have to “free up” any more money to pursue more expensive players.

For a team like the Royals, Butler’s salary, plus his overall production, is his value. The Royals are better off trying to upgrade the outfield (click on the link for a list of 10 free agent outfielders), maybe second base as well, and hoping Eric Hosmer continues to improve, and keeping Butler. If Butler is the third best bat on the team, that team will be pretty decent offensively. That should be the goal.

For all of his warts, Billy Butler can hit. He MUST figure out how to get the ball in the air more often. He has got to get back to driving the ball on a more consistent basis. Billy Butler can still be an imminent piece of the Royals offense. The team just needs to put more good bats around him.