Everyone wants to know what John Dorsey and Andy Reid will do in this year’s draft. The Kansas City Chiefs have the top pick for the first time in the history of the franchise. Everyone knows the Chiefs need a quarterback, but with Dorsey and Reid using talking points of “best player available,” there’s a lot of uncertainty regarding their direction when April 25th rolls around.
While there is no way to truly know the exact player the Chiefs will select first overall, we can pick up some tendencies by looking at the Green Bay Packers draft history. Since John Dorsey played an integral part in scouting and drafting, his former team’s history may give us a bit of insight into what the Chiefs will do when they are finally on the clock.
- 2012 – #28 – DE – Nick Perry
- 2011 – #32 – OL – Derek Sherrod
- 2010 – #23 – T – Bryan Bulaga
- 2009 – #9 – DT – B.J. Raji
- 2008 – #36 – WR – Jordy Nelson
- 2007 – #16 – DT – Justin Harrell
- 2006 – #5 – LB – A.J. Hawk
- 2005 – #24 – QB – Aaron Rodgers
- 2004 – #25 – DB – Ahmad Carroll
- 2003 – #29 – LB – Nick Barnett
- 2002 – #20 – WR – Javon Walker
- 2001 – #10 – DE – Jamal Reynolds
- 2000 – #14 – TE – Bubba Franks
Twice in Dorsey’s time with the Packers, as director of scouting and director of operations, they had a top 10 pick. Both times they chose defense. If we exclude lineman, they drafted offensive skill positions four times – or 30% of the time. Again excluding lineman, they drafted defensive skill positions three times out of 13. In all, they drafted lineman six out of 13 times, and defense seven out of 13 times.
What does all this teach us about John Dorsey’s drafting tendencies?
For one thing, he’s very versatile. Beyond that, the primary trend is that when drafting high, they draft defense and his three highest picks were all on that side of the ball. When they did draft a QB with their first pick it was at #24 and it was Aaron Rodgers who famously fell into the Packers lap. Rodgers was the second QB taken in that draft, behind Alex Smith who went first overall. Keep in mind that this pick was while Brett Favre was still in his prime. Because there were no quarterbacks taken from #2-#23, Rodgers was definitely the best player available.
Dorsey will ultimately do what he learned in Green Bay. He learned that choosing the best available player pays off. Don’t reach, but instead pick the player that has the most value at that pick. Dorsey won’t reach on April 25th. He’ll pick the player that is most worthy of the pick. If this happens, let’s trust that they have already dealt with our most pressing need and acquired a quarterback in free agency or via trade.