The Chiefs Should Not Select a QB With Their First Pick

The simple answer is this: drafting a quarterback in the top five picks of the NFL draft is like playing roulette; you can lose just as easily as you can win. Actually, you are much more likely to lose. Only 8 out of 17 quarterbacks drafted in the top of the first round from 1998-2012 are still starting for their teams. And of those, only two would be considered “elite” quarterbacks. (Eli Manning, and Peyton Manning)

Looking ahead to the 2013 Draft. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Look at it another way: The elite quarterbacks in our league today (excluding rookies) would be Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Schaub, E. Manning, and P. Manning. Of these seven quarterbacks only two were drafted in the first five picks – the as mentioned above Manning brothers. That means that 5 of the top 7 quarterbacks in the league were drafted mid-to-late 1st round, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th round.

A much tougher way to be objective is to look at the 1st round busts. It’s easy to get wrapped up in the major busts like Ryan Leaf, Kyle Boller, David Carr, Patrick Ramsey, Tim Couch, and Matt Leinart. But the truth is that the list doesn’t stop there. Rick Mirer, Byron Leftwich, Cade McNown, and Joey Harrington are a few more. The list seems endless of quarterbacks that had high expectations, but did not succeed.

Since 1998, teams have selected an elite quarterback only 11.7% of the time. Why would anyone use a top 5 pick on a quarterback with those odds? If the Kansas City Chiefs want a quarterback from the first round, we have one who was 22nd in Brady Quinn and we all know how that has worked out. Drafting a Quarterback in the top of the first round has a greater than 88% chance of failure by these “Elite” standards. The Chiefs are likely going to have the first pick in the NFL draft, let’s use it on something with a much greater chance of being an “Elite” decision!

Topics: 2013 NFL Draft, Kansas City Chiefs

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  • http://twitter.com/chiefs2582 Ryan Ulrich

    While the numbers don’t lie, and I agree the chance at bust is extremely high, who would you suggest with the pick? Personally, after watching this atrocious offense all year, I’d take anyone else lining up under center, even with those odds.

    • http://puckettspond.com/ Wally Fish

      I’m on board with Chip on this, especially as we look at the 2013 draft class. I don’t think there is a QB deserving of being a Top-10 pick at this point and Barkley would be a HUGE mistake in my opinion.

      I’d rather they use their first pick to fill another hole that’s deserving of such a lofty pick – and let’s not kid ourselves, they have PLENTY of holes – and grab the next best available QB with their 1st pick in the 2nd round and then perhaps go back to the position in the 4th or 5th if there’s another guy that grades out on their board as good value for the slot.

      Obviously the offseason workouts and combines could change things and if a QB moves up the draft boards and merits being selected I’m on board. They obviously need a franchise QB but you don’t HAVE to use a Top-5 pick to get one.

  • drtold

    Draft a QB #1. If we don’t get the #1 pick, then we can draft something else.

  • http://www.facebook.com/nathan.clements.524 Nathan Clements

    Chiefs need a Vahn Miller Type of Linebacker before they need a QB! Besides the Chiefs have not drafted a quarterback and developed a quarterback into Super Bowl Champion in over 40 years. It’s time for the owner to spend some money, and stick with a coach. When those two things happen KC fans will be Happy Happy Happy!

  • http://www.facebook.com/nico.marquez.98 Nico Marquez

    I say the chiefs need to draft Te’o from ND this guy is showing tons of upside and can learn lots from Derrick Johnson. I would definetely not draft a first round QB knowing the chiefs’ luck with that and also the lack of talent. I think chiefs need to fire the whole front office and either trade for kirk cousins or alex smith or wait for elite talent to come out of college.

    • Cha-iefs

      This is my line of thinking aswell.

    • http://www.facebook.com/aaron.forsythe.75 Aaron Forsythe

      I have to agree with you Nico. Te’o would be a great compliment to DJ, Hali, Houston. QB can be taken in second, or look at free agency options. Depends on who the new GM, HC, and O-cord will be. Alex Smith would be a good fit and give us two years to develop Stanzi or Tanney. I doubt Cousins will be available.

      • http://puckettspond.com/ Wally Fish

        I’m interested to see how Te’o does in workouts but he certainly fills a need and “measurables” aside the guy is a hard core football player and leader. As we are all painfully aware, the Chiefs are definitely lacking in both those areas right now.

        Cousins might be pricey but he’s the type of talent the Chiefs should look at as I think he presents a better option than anything in the 2013 class (as things stand now) and the Redskins may want to move him while his value is at a high point. That said there are a lot of intriguing QB options that with the right coaching and system could develop into a franchise player and I’d guess at least a handful of them will be there at the start of the second round.

        I want absolutely no part of Alex Smith – take him off a loaded team like San Francisco and you basically have Matt Cassel.

      • TAZMOSIS

        Aaron,
        Alex Smith isn’t going anywhere, and Shanahan got Cousins for one reason, and it is paying off. He has won two games for the Skins, and without him, they are home for the holidays. If the price were right, meaning a top ten draft pick to the Skins, then maybe a trade can happen. Te’o is an absolute stud, and would give the Chiefs maybe the best LB corps in the NFL. But at what price? No MLB is worth a top ten pick. (Although I would say that we would loved to have Luke Keukly instead of Poe) If the guy is an outside rusher, then that is a different story. The Chiefs have gotta’ have a QB that can come in and start. Please don’t say that there are none in the draft worthy of the top pick. Would you say that now about Russel Wilson? Pete Carroll saw something in this guy that everybody else missed. And that seemed to work out OK. Let’s see what happens before draft day.

  • Outback Chief

    From the last 5 drafts in the 1st round in the top 5 there were 8 QB’s chosen 1 was a bust ‘Russell’ 1 Sanchez is on his way to busting if not already, but the other 6 have proven to be average or above in a very short amount of time proving that the nfl has learned to adapt to the talent and not the talent being forced to adapt to the nfl.Now the only question is ‘Can the Chiefs join the rest of the league in that area or will they continue to be stuck in the old ways and continue to be stubborn and stupid at the same time’ Frankly the Chiefs need to grow up’

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000109626785 Marty Moore

    It is because you need people who can catch also?

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